As you know, winning the World Series last year was fun. If the Phillies win this year, it will be even better. Once again, the Phillies are underdogs in the World Series but they are even less favored to win this year as they are being opposed by the 103-win New York Yankees. In the regular season, the Phillies went just 6-12 against the American League but went 2-1 against the Yankees and were a Brad Lidge blown save away from achieving a sweep in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series.
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Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Weird schedule could favor Phils
The Philadelphia Phillies will not play a baseball game tomorrow. The day off is rather strange since it comes between Game 4 and Game 5, both of which will be played at Citizens Bank Park. While it will be annoying not to watch the Phillies tomorrow (especially if they win tonight and are on the verge of clinching a World Series berth), this schedule quirk could work out well for the Phillies.If the Los Angeles Dodgers win either of the next two games, they will force a Game 6 to be played in Los Angeles on Friday, with a travel day off on Thursday. This will allow the Phillies to start their postseason stud, Cliff Lee, in Game 6, on normal rest. Moreover, should the series go to Game 7 (assuming the Cole Jamels starts in Game 5) the Phillies would have Pedro Martinez available to start on long rest and he excelled pitching on long rest in Game 2 of the NLCS. Lastly, since Game 1 of the World Series is set for Wednesday, October 28th, pitching Lee in Game 6 of the NLCS would allow him to start Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. While it means a day without baseball, tomorrow's off day could favor the Phillies in both the NLCS and the World Series, should they qualify.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
NLCS Preview
There is an old saying that familiarity breeds contempt. If that statement is true, then this should be an ugly National League Championship Series between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is already bad blood between the two teams stemming back from last year's NLCS. Moreover, several players have played for both teams including Jayson Werth, Pedro Martinez, Paul Bako, Chan Ho Park, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Jim Thome.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
Monday, October 12, 2009
Why I admire Chase Utley
Chase Utley is a badass. Of course you already knew that, but last night's game confirmed it. By now, the play in the ninth inning of yesterday's game has been shown over and over again where Utley hit an infield single to put runners on first and third with one out. Utley's hit set up Ryan Howard's game winning sacrifice fly. The instant replay clearly shows that the ball hit off of Chase Utley's leg and should have been ruled a foul ball. Moreover, it was very questionable whether Utley sohld have been called safe at first base.
While Rockies fans rightfully complain about the poor umpiring on that play (although the umpiring was also very poor on several pitches to Matt Stairs in the eighth), Utley deserves a lot of credit for making that play happen. When the ball bounced off of Utley's leg, he didn't recoil or stop and kept running as if the ball was in play. This caused the umpire to miss the fact that the ball should have been ruled foul. Then, since Utley was running hard to first base Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba needed to hurry the throw to first base which caused Todd Helton to come off the bag at first. Had Utley stopped running or cringed when the ball hit his leg, this key play would not have happened and the Phillies might not have won the ballgame. Read more!
While Rockies fans rightfully complain about the poor umpiring on that play (although the umpiring was also very poor on several pitches to Matt Stairs in the eighth), Utley deserves a lot of credit for making that play happen. When the ball bounced off of Utley's leg, he didn't recoil or stop and kept running as if the ball was in play. This caused the umpire to miss the fact that the ball should have been ruled foul. Then, since Utley was running hard to first base Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba needed to hurry the throw to first base which caused Todd Helton to come off the bag at first. Had Utley stopped running or cringed when the ball hit his leg, this key play would not have happened and the Phillies might not have won the ballgame. Read more!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NLDS Preview
The start of the National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies is only a couple of hours away, so let's preview the series.
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Recent slide is not encouraging
The Phillies have not been playing very good baseball recently. The last few games have not technically mattered since the Phillies have clinched the division and have now secured the #2 seed in the National League playoffs and will host the Colorado Rockies in the National League Divisional Series (I will cover the first round matchup in a later post). However, this slump is still problematic for the Phillies.
Since the Phillies clinched the division, they have dropped four straight games. While benchwarmers such as Miguel Cairo and Andy Tracy have been seeing some playing time, most of the regulars are still in the starting lineup. Even though Charlie Manuel has been pulling his starting pitchers early in games, none of the starters has impressed lately. The last time a member of their current starting rotation had a quality start was back on September 22nd when Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings to beat the Florida Marlins 9-3.
These performances may not make a difference for the standings but teams that have had to coast for awhile have not done well in the playoffs. Last season, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Angels had been assured playoff spots well in advance of the postseason and those two teams managed to win just one playoff game between the two of them. While it is tough to simply turn a team around, the Phillies will be fortunate that the Rockies assured themselves of a playoff spot a few days ago. Read more!
Since the Phillies clinched the division, they have dropped four straight games. While benchwarmers such as Miguel Cairo and Andy Tracy have been seeing some playing time, most of the regulars are still in the starting lineup. Even though Charlie Manuel has been pulling his starting pitchers early in games, none of the starters has impressed lately. The last time a member of their current starting rotation had a quality start was back on September 22nd when Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings to beat the Florida Marlins 9-3.
These performances may not make a difference for the standings but teams that have had to coast for awhile have not done well in the playoffs. Last season, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Angels had been assured playoff spots well in advance of the postseason and those two teams managed to win just one playoff game between the two of them. While it is tough to simply turn a team around, the Phillies will be fortunate that the Rockies assured themselves of a playoff spot a few days ago. Read more!
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Playoff Rosters: Redux
A couple of weeks ago, Dan Trubman previewed the Phillies' potential playoff roster here. Since then, a few things have changed: injuries to Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer, the emergence of a closer (Ryan Madson) and the fact that the Phillies have actually clinched the National League East. The team still have several days before they need to finalize their roster for the playoffs but it can't hurt to see what the postseason roster would look like right now.Barring injury, the Phillies' offense is pretty much set for the playoffs as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner Read more!
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner Read more!
Monday, September 28, 2009
This team needs a spark
The Phillies are in dire need of a spark. They just completed a lackluster 5-5 road trip and after tonight's very flat 8-2 loss to the Houston Astros, the Phillies have now dropped five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the surging Atlanta Braves are just four games behind the Phillies for the National League East title. Moreover, as Todd Zolecki has pointed out, recent National League champions have played remarkably well in the stretch run. Simply put, this team needs some form of inspiration if they want to win the NL East or make another run in the playoffs.
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Building a 25 man roster (without Lidge).
First I want to thank Nick for letting me post here. But considering I'm like 80% of the comments, it only seems fair.
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
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