As you have definitely heard by now the Phillies have signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year, $125 million extension. That has prompted me to take a look at Ruben Amaro's history so far as general manager and grade each one of his moves that has had an impact on the Major League team.
November 20, 2008--Phillies trade OF Greg Golson to Rangers for OF John Mayberry, Jr. Grade: B+.
Amaro's first trade was a swap of failed prospects. Golson was released by the Rangers rather quickly whereas Mayberry can at least serve as a fifth outfielder in a pinch and is having a decent season at AAA so far.
December 10, 2008--Phillies trade C Jason Jaramillo to Pirates for C Ronny Paulino. Grade: C.
Both Jaramillo and Paulino exceeded expectations last season but Paulino did so for the Marlins (see below).
December 15, 2008--Phillies sign P Jamie Moyer to 2 year, $13 million contract. Grade: D+.
Moyer was not as good for the Phillies last year as they hoped but he quietly had a very good second half last season pitching in the rotation and bullpen and is very good for 2010's rotation depth. However, had Moyer not signed this contract (or signed a one-year deal as he should have), the Phillies would have possibly saved enough money to retain Cliff Lee for 2010.
December 16, 2008--Phillies sign OF Raul Ibanez to 3 year, $31.5 million contract. Grade: C.
At the beginning of last season this looked like this would have been one of the best signings in the history of baseball as Ibanez was the top outfielder in the 2009 All-Star Game. However, in the second half of the year Ibanez experienced a significant dropoff and his contract is backloaded so Ibanez is essentially on a 2 year, $23 million deal now. It would not surprise me if Ibanez is released after this season.
January 6, 2009--Phillies sign P Chan Ho Park to 1 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: A-.
Once the Phillies learned that it was not 2001 and Chan Ho Park is not a starting pitcher, Park emerged as the Phillies best and most consistent relief pitcher. It would have been nice to have the Phillies re-sign him for this season but he instead signed with the New York Yankees in the offseason.
January 16, 2009--Phillies sign IF Greg Dobbs to 2 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: C.
Dobbs was unable to replicate his fine 2008 season but being a pinch-hitter doesn't give you a big sample size anyway. Dobbs isn't great, but this contract doesn't kill the team.
January 18, 2009--Phillies sign P Cole Hamels to 3 year, $20.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Even though Hamels hasn't been the quite the pitcher he was during his 2008 breakout season, this is still a nice affordable contract for a young pitcher. Would've been nice to see the Phillies buyout (or have team options) for a couple of Hamels's free agent years though.
January 20, 2009--Phillies sign P Ryan Madson to 3 year, $12 million contract. Grade: B.
With this deal, the Phillies bought out his final arbitration year and two of his free agent years. Madson has had trouble closing games but he is still a very good relief pitcher.
January 22, 2009--Phillies sign OF Jayson Werth to 2 year, $10 million contract. Grade: B-.
The Phillies did very good for themselves signing Werth cheaply before his 2009 breakout season. However, the Phillies missed a huge opprotunity to sign Werth to a longer-term, below-market contract and as a result Werth will probably be wearing a different uniform next season.
February 8, 2009--Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 3 year, $54 million contract. Grade: C-.
This contract was about fair market value for Howard's arbitration years but it would've been nice to see the Phillies get a slightly below market value for this deal as a trade off for Howard's job security.
March 27, 2009--Phillies trade C Ronny Paulino to Giants for P Jack Taschner. Grade: D.
In theory this trade made a lot of sense for the Phillies as they already had two catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste) and they needed another left-handed pitcher while J.C. Romero served his 50 game suspension. As much as I liked Taschner, he was ineffective and off of them team by July (as was Coste) while Paulino was flipped to the Marlins had a nice season in a part-time role.
July 15, 2009-Phillies sign P Pedro Martinez to 1 year, <$1 million contract. Grade: A-.
It was a blast having Pedro on the team even if it was only for a couple of months and he did a great job down the stretch for the Phillies. The only thing preventing this from being an A grade was a relatively lackluster World Series performance.
July 30, 2009-Phillies trade P Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, IF Jason Donald and P Jason Knapp to Indians for P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco. Grade: A.
Its hard not to like this trade for the Phillies as Cliff Lee led the pitching staff throughout their playoff run and was completely dominant in the playoffs and World Series. To make matters even better for the Phillies, Carrasco and Marson have been awful with the Indians and Donald and Knapp have yet to make the majors.
December 1, 2009-Phillies sign C Brian Schneider to 2 year, $2.75 million contract. Grade: C.
This contract is pretty big for a backup catcher but Schneider is a border line starter and if Ruiz is out for an extended period of time, the Phillies may be grateful to have Schneider.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign IF Juan Castro to 1 year, $750,000 contract. Grade: B-.
He's not Eric Bruntlett.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign 3B Placido Polanco to 3 year, $18 million contract. Grade: B.
Sure this contract was probably too long but I've always been a big Polanco fan and so far he has been great and the contract isn't a killer on the payroll.
December 15, 2009-Phillies sign IF Ross Gload to 2 year, $2.6 million contract. Grade: D-.
This signing was completely unnecessary as the Phillies are already have a (slightly) better version of Gload in Greg Dobbs and one Greg Dobbs is enough for a team.
December 16, 2009-Phillies trade P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis D'Arnaud to Blue Jays for P Roy Halladay and trade P Cliff Lee to Mariners for P Philippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies and P J.C. Ramirez. Grade: C+.
Obviously, the jury is still out on this trade but so far the trade has favored the Phillies as Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in the National League and Cliff Lee has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners. The Phillies gave up better prospects to the Blue Jays than they received from the Indians but the Phillies were also able to sign Halladay to a (slightly) below market extension.
January 5, 2010-Phillies sign P Danys Baez to 2 year, $5.25 million contract. Grade: D-.
Baez was nearly cut by the Baltimore Orioles last year, there's no reason he should be signing a 2 year contract let alone one for over $5 million. The early returns on Baez have been less than stellar.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign P Joe Blanton to 3 year, $24 million contract. Grade: B.
Blanton is a good innings-eater and the Phillies have him signed to a reasonable contract. Blanton should be worth the money.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign CF Shane Victorino to 3 year, $22 million contract. Grade: C.
If Victorino has similar season to his last two seasons, this will be a decent contract but Victorino's already showing signs of concerns with declining defense and speed.
January 24, 2010-Phillies sign C Carlos Ruiz to 3 year, $8.85 million contract. Grade: A-.
Ruiz certainly won't be confusing anyone with Johnny Bench but he is an above-average catcher signed for three years in his prime very inexpensively. He will definitely be worth this contract.
January 28, 2010-Phillies sign P Jose Contreras to 1 year, $1.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Contreras had a nice run in the bullpen last September for the Colorado Rockies and that run so far has continued with the Phillies. He is a good replacement for Chan Ho Park.
April 26, 2010-Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 5 year, $125 million contract. Grade: F.
This signing was completely pointless and has the potential to be up there with Barry Zito, Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano as one of the worst contracts in baseball. I am a big Howard fan and certainly wish him the best of luck, but this contract won't even kick in until the 2012 season when Howard will be 32 and in the probable beginning of his decline. In the best case scenario, this contract will be like Miguel Cabrera or Carlos Lee's contract where he will probably be paid close to market value but is so large that it will be impossible to trade Howard if the Phillies need the payroll flexibility. Furthermore, the Phillies did not get any sort of discount with this deal making it even more toxic for the team.
.
Read more!
Showing posts with label cole hamels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cole hamels. Show all posts
Monday, April 26, 2010
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
World Series Preview
As you know, winning the World Series last year was fun. If the Phillies win this year, it will be even better. Once again, the Phillies are underdogs in the World Series but they are even less favored to win this year as they are being opposed by the 103-win New York Yankees. In the regular season, the Phillies went just 6-12 against the American League but went 2-1 against the Yankees and were a Brad Lidge blown save away from achieving a sweep in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Weird schedule could favor Phils
The Philadelphia Phillies will not play a baseball game tomorrow. The day off is rather strange since it comes between Game 4 and Game 5, both of which will be played at Citizens Bank Park. While it will be annoying not to watch the Phillies tomorrow (especially if they win tonight and are on the verge of clinching a World Series berth), this schedule quirk could work out well for the Phillies.If the Los Angeles Dodgers win either of the next two games, they will force a Game 6 to be played in Los Angeles on Friday, with a travel day off on Thursday. This will allow the Phillies to start their postseason stud, Cliff Lee, in Game 6, on normal rest. Moreover, should the series go to Game 7 (assuming the Cole Jamels starts in Game 5) the Phillies would have Pedro Martinez available to start on long rest and he excelled pitching on long rest in Game 2 of the NLCS. Lastly, since Game 1 of the World Series is set for Wednesday, October 28th, pitching Lee in Game 6 of the NLCS would allow him to start Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. While it means a day without baseball, tomorrow's off day could favor the Phillies in both the NLCS and the World Series, should they qualify.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
NLCS Preview
There is an old saying that familiarity breeds contempt. If that statement is true, then this should be an ugly National League Championship Series between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is already bad blood between the two teams stemming back from last year's NLCS. Moreover, several players have played for both teams including Jayson Werth, Pedro Martinez, Paul Bako, Chan Ho Park, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Jim Thome.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NLDS Preview
The start of the National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies is only a couple of hours away, so let's preview the series.
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
