As you have definitely heard by now the Phillies have signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year, $125 million extension. That has prompted me to take a look at Ruben Amaro's history so far as general manager and grade each one of his moves that has had an impact on the Major League team.
November 20, 2008--Phillies trade OF Greg Golson to Rangers for OF John Mayberry, Jr. Grade: B+.
Amaro's first trade was a swap of failed prospects. Golson was released by the Rangers rather quickly whereas Mayberry can at least serve as a fifth outfielder in a pinch and is having a decent season at AAA so far.
December 10, 2008--Phillies trade C Jason Jaramillo to Pirates for C Ronny Paulino. Grade: C.
Both Jaramillo and Paulino exceeded expectations last season but Paulino did so for the Marlins (see below).
December 15, 2008--Phillies sign P Jamie Moyer to 2 year, $13 million contract. Grade: D+.
Moyer was not as good for the Phillies last year as they hoped but he quietly had a very good second half last season pitching in the rotation and bullpen and is very good for 2010's rotation depth. However, had Moyer not signed this contract (or signed a one-year deal as he should have), the Phillies would have possibly saved enough money to retain Cliff Lee for 2010.
December 16, 2008--Phillies sign OF Raul Ibanez to 3 year, $31.5 million contract. Grade: C.
At the beginning of last season this looked like this would have been one of the best signings in the history of baseball as Ibanez was the top outfielder in the 2009 All-Star Game. However, in the second half of the year Ibanez experienced a significant dropoff and his contract is backloaded so Ibanez is essentially on a 2 year, $23 million deal now. It would not surprise me if Ibanez is released after this season.
January 6, 2009--Phillies sign P Chan Ho Park to 1 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: A-.
Once the Phillies learned that it was not 2001 and Chan Ho Park is not a starting pitcher, Park emerged as the Phillies best and most consistent relief pitcher. It would have been nice to have the Phillies re-sign him for this season but he instead signed with the New York Yankees in the offseason.
January 16, 2009--Phillies sign IF Greg Dobbs to 2 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: C.
Dobbs was unable to replicate his fine 2008 season but being a pinch-hitter doesn't give you a big sample size anyway. Dobbs isn't great, but this contract doesn't kill the team.
January 18, 2009--Phillies sign P Cole Hamels to 3 year, $20.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Even though Hamels hasn't been the quite the pitcher he was during his 2008 breakout season, this is still a nice affordable contract for a young pitcher. Would've been nice to see the Phillies buyout (or have team options) for a couple of Hamels's free agent years though.
January 20, 2009--Phillies sign P Ryan Madson to 3 year, $12 million contract. Grade: B.
With this deal, the Phillies bought out his final arbitration year and two of his free agent years. Madson has had trouble closing games but he is still a very good relief pitcher.
January 22, 2009--Phillies sign OF Jayson Werth to 2 year, $10 million contract. Grade: B-.
The Phillies did very good for themselves signing Werth cheaply before his 2009 breakout season. However, the Phillies missed a huge opprotunity to sign Werth to a longer-term, below-market contract and as a result Werth will probably be wearing a different uniform next season.
February 8, 2009--Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 3 year, $54 million contract. Grade: C-.
This contract was about fair market value for Howard's arbitration years but it would've been nice to see the Phillies get a slightly below market value for this deal as a trade off for Howard's job security.
March 27, 2009--Phillies trade C Ronny Paulino to Giants for P Jack Taschner. Grade: D.
In theory this trade made a lot of sense for the Phillies as they already had two catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste) and they needed another left-handed pitcher while J.C. Romero served his 50 game suspension. As much as I liked Taschner, he was ineffective and off of them team by July (as was Coste) while Paulino was flipped to the Marlins had a nice season in a part-time role.
July 15, 2009-Phillies sign P Pedro Martinez to 1 year, <$1 million contract. Grade: A-.
It was a blast having Pedro on the team even if it was only for a couple of months and he did a great job down the stretch for the Phillies. The only thing preventing this from being an A grade was a relatively lackluster World Series performance.
July 30, 2009-Phillies trade P Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, IF Jason Donald and P Jason Knapp to Indians for P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco. Grade: A.
Its hard not to like this trade for the Phillies as Cliff Lee led the pitching staff throughout their playoff run and was completely dominant in the playoffs and World Series. To make matters even better for the Phillies, Carrasco and Marson have been awful with the Indians and Donald and Knapp have yet to make the majors.
December 1, 2009-Phillies sign C Brian Schneider to 2 year, $2.75 million contract. Grade: C.
This contract is pretty big for a backup catcher but Schneider is a border line starter and if Ruiz is out for an extended period of time, the Phillies may be grateful to have Schneider.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign IF Juan Castro to 1 year, $750,000 contract. Grade: B-.
He's not Eric Bruntlett.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign 3B Placido Polanco to 3 year, $18 million contract. Grade: B.
Sure this contract was probably too long but I've always been a big Polanco fan and so far he has been great and the contract isn't a killer on the payroll.
December 15, 2009-Phillies sign IF Ross Gload to 2 year, $2.6 million contract. Grade: D-.
This signing was completely unnecessary as the Phillies are already have a (slightly) better version of Gload in Greg Dobbs and one Greg Dobbs is enough for a team.
December 16, 2009-Phillies trade P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis D'Arnaud to Blue Jays for P Roy Halladay and trade P Cliff Lee to Mariners for P Philippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies and P J.C. Ramirez. Grade: C+.
Obviously, the jury is still out on this trade but so far the trade has favored the Phillies as Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in the National League and Cliff Lee has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners. The Phillies gave up better prospects to the Blue Jays than they received from the Indians but the Phillies were also able to sign Halladay to a (slightly) below market extension.
January 5, 2010-Phillies sign P Danys Baez to 2 year, $5.25 million contract. Grade: D-.
Baez was nearly cut by the Baltimore Orioles last year, there's no reason he should be signing a 2 year contract let alone one for over $5 million. The early returns on Baez have been less than stellar.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign P Joe Blanton to 3 year, $24 million contract. Grade: B.
Blanton is a good innings-eater and the Phillies have him signed to a reasonable contract. Blanton should be worth the money.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign CF Shane Victorino to 3 year, $22 million contract. Grade: C.
If Victorino has similar season to his last two seasons, this will be a decent contract but Victorino's already showing signs of concerns with declining defense and speed.
January 24, 2010-Phillies sign C Carlos Ruiz to 3 year, $8.85 million contract. Grade: A-.
Ruiz certainly won't be confusing anyone with Johnny Bench but he is an above-average catcher signed for three years in his prime very inexpensively. He will definitely be worth this contract.
January 28, 2010-Phillies sign P Jose Contreras to 1 year, $1.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Contreras had a nice run in the bullpen last September for the Colorado Rockies and that run so far has continued with the Phillies. He is a good replacement for Chan Ho Park.
April 26, 2010-Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 5 year, $125 million contract. Grade: F.
This signing was completely pointless and has the potential to be up there with Barry Zito, Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano as one of the worst contracts in baseball. I am a big Howard fan and certainly wish him the best of luck, but this contract won't even kick in until the 2012 season when Howard will be 32 and in the probable beginning of his decline. In the best case scenario, this contract will be like Miguel Cabrera or Carlos Lee's contract where he will probably be paid close to market value but is so large that it will be impossible to trade Howard if the Phillies need the payroll flexibility. Furthermore, the Phillies did not get any sort of discount with this deal making it even more toxic for the team.
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Showing posts with label pedro martinez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pedro martinez. Show all posts
Monday, April 26, 2010
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Previewing Games 6 and 7
The Phillies certainly made it interesting last night, didn't they? But a win is a win, and the Phillies will be returning to Yankee Stadium for one or two more World Series games, so let's preview them!
Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
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Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
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Monday, October 19, 2009
Weird schedule could favor Phils
The Philadelphia Phillies will not play a baseball game tomorrow. The day off is rather strange since it comes between Game 4 and Game 5, both of which will be played at Citizens Bank Park. While it will be annoying not to watch the Phillies tomorrow (especially if they win tonight and are on the verge of clinching a World Series berth), this schedule quirk could work out well for the Phillies.If the Los Angeles Dodgers win either of the next two games, they will force a Game 6 to be played in Los Angeles on Friday, with a travel day off on Thursday. This will allow the Phillies to start their postseason stud, Cliff Lee, in Game 6, on normal rest. Moreover, should the series go to Game 7 (assuming the Cole Jamels starts in Game 5) the Phillies would have Pedro Martinez available to start on long rest and he excelled pitching on long rest in Game 2 of the NLCS. Lastly, since Game 1 of the World Series is set for Wednesday, October 28th, pitching Lee in Game 6 of the NLCS would allow him to start Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. While it means a day without baseball, tomorrow's off day could favor the Phillies in both the NLCS and the World Series, should they qualify.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
NLCS Preview
There is an old saying that familiarity breeds contempt. If that statement is true, then this should be an ugly National League Championship Series between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is already bad blood between the two teams stemming back from last year's NLCS. Moreover, several players have played for both teams including Jayson Werth, Pedro Martinez, Paul Bako, Chan Ho Park, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Jim Thome.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
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