A couple of weeks ago, Dan Trubman previewed the Phillies' potential playoff roster here. Since then, a few things have changed: injuries to Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer, the emergence of a closer (Ryan Madson) and the fact that the Phillies have actually clinched the National League East. The team still have several days before they need to finalize their roster for the playoffs but it can't hurt to see what the postseason roster would look like right now.Barring injury, the Phillies' offense is pretty much set for the playoffs as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner
Read more!
Showing posts with label bullpen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bullpen. Show all posts
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Who needs a closer?
As has been one of the recurring themes of the Phillies this season, just when Brad Lidge looked like he has finally gotten into a groove as closer, he blows another game as what happened last night in Pittsburgh. As good as Lidge says he feels, the Phillies cannot continue to go forward with a closer who blows over a quarter of his games.
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Stay away from Billy the Kid
Today marked the return of former Phillies closer Billy Wagner for the New York Mets following a year-long sting on the disabled list. Wagner threw a scoreless inning for the Mets in a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves. However, before Wagner even threw a pitch, he was placed on waivers by the Mets. This has stirred up some speculation that the Phillies may be interested in re-acquiring their former All-Star.
However, it would be wise for the Phillies to take a pass on Wagner.
If the Phillies were to claim Wagner off of waivers, they would be responsible for paying the remaining $2.7 million on Wagner's contract which is more than Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey are making for the entire season.
The Phillies also have an abudnance of left-handed relivers. Scott Eyre has done a very good job as the primary lefty out of the pen while J.C. Romero has been on the disabled list. Jamie Moyer was also excellent in his first relief appearance on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Minor leaguers Jack Taschner and Sergio Escalona have also proved themselves capable in short stints with the big league team this year.
One option for Wagner would be to use him in the closer's role where both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have struggled so far this year. Wagner does have 385 career saves but trusting the ninth inning to a 38-year-old coming off of major injury would be a major leap of faith for the Phillies. It would make more sense for the Phillies to continue to gut out the closer's role with Lidge or experiement with two-inning saves for Chan Ho Park.
Lastly, Billy Wagner has proven to be a bad teammate with both the Phillies and the Mets. His presence in the clubhouse could create an unnecessary distraction for a clubhouse that appears to be unified and is cruising towards their third straight division title.
Read more!
However, it would be wise for the Phillies to take a pass on Wagner.
If the Phillies were to claim Wagner off of waivers, they would be responsible for paying the remaining $2.7 million on Wagner's contract which is more than Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey are making for the entire season.
The Phillies also have an abudnance of left-handed relivers. Scott Eyre has done a very good job as the primary lefty out of the pen while J.C. Romero has been on the disabled list. Jamie Moyer was also excellent in his first relief appearance on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Minor leaguers Jack Taschner and Sergio Escalona have also proved themselves capable in short stints with the big league team this year.
One option for Wagner would be to use him in the closer's role where both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have struggled so far this year. Wagner does have 385 career saves but trusting the ninth inning to a 38-year-old coming off of major injury would be a major leap of faith for the Phillies. It would make more sense for the Phillies to continue to gut out the closer's role with Lidge or experiement with two-inning saves for Chan Ho Park.
Lastly, Billy Wagner has proven to be a bad teammate with both the Phillies and the Mets. His presence in the clubhouse could create an unnecessary distraction for a clubhouse that appears to be unified and is cruising towards their third straight division title.
Read more!
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