If you are like me, you are probably sick of hearing the names Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney. We still have the entire offseason of discussing these players, so let's take a diversion and look at five trades and free agent signings that probably won't happen but could make sense for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Braves trade SP Derek Lowe to Phillies for RP Brad Lidge
Why it could work: Brad Lidge is a player who needs a change of scenery every few years. He struggled with the Houston Astros prior to his trade to the Phillies so another trade could help Lidge become a quality closer again. The Braves' top two relievers from 2009, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, are both free agents. Lowe struggled in his first year with the Braves but as a sinker ball pitcher, could see a rebound with the Phillies' excellent infield defense. The Braves have six starting pitchers under contract next year and are expected to trade Lowe or Javier Vazquez.
Potential problems: Both players have large contracts, with Lidge owed $36 million over the next three seasons and Lowe owed $45 million for the next three seasons. The Braves may not have confidence in Lidge to return to elite status and the Phillies may be reluctant to have a 37-year-old pitcher with declining numbers for the next three years. The Phillies have a full rotation already, although there is room to improve.
Nationals trade 3B Ryan Zimmerman to Phillies for SP J.A. Happ, SP Jamie Moyer, SP Antonio Bastardo, OF Michael Taylor and cash
Why it could work: The Phillies need a third baseman (preferrably a defensive standout) and Zimmerman fits that description perfectly and is an offesnive juggernaut as well. Zimmerman is only 25 and under contract through 2014. The Phillies have the pitching depth to give up three starting pitchers while the Nationals have a huge need for pitching as they currently have only one Major League-caliber starter (John Lannan). The Nationals have expressed an interest in acquiring a veteran starter to mentor the young pitching and Moyer is a perfect fit for them. Happ could be the Nationals' ace for next season and it would make sense for the Phillies to trade him now. Bastardo and Taylor are Major League ready but there may not be room for them on the Phillies roster so they could be expendable.
Potential Problems: Zimmerman is the face of the Nationals' franchise and by far their best player so the Nationals would be very reluctant to trade him. Happ, Bastardo and Taylor are not yet arbitration-eligible but Moyer is owed $6.5 million for next year (while Zimmerman is only owed $5 million) so the Nationals may require the Phillies to eat some of Moyer's salary.
White Sox trade RP Bobby Jenks and cash to Phillies for 3B Pedro Feliz
Why it could work: The Phillies need another reliever and the White Sox need a third baseman. Jenks will get a small arbitration raise over his $5.6 million salary from next year and Feliz has a $5 million option for 2010.
Potential problems: This trade was plausible a couple of weeks ago but since then the White Sox have traded for Mark Teahen to play third base and the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz's option for 2010. This trade will not happen.
Phillies sign Brad Penny
Why it could work: Last season, Penny had success in the National League with the San Francisco Giants after a disastrous stint in the American League with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Phillies could look to use Penny in the bullpen. Throughout his career, Penny has much better numbers against hitters the first time through the lineup than the second time. The Phillies could shift Penny to a starter if there is a vacancy in the rotation. Penny is a highly emotional pitcher who can start or relieve similar to Brett Myers, who will not be returning to the Phillies next year. Penny may also be motivated to pitch for the Phillies to defeat his former team, the Florida Marlins.
Potential Problems: As a career starter, Penny may have trouble or may be reluctant to shift to the bullpen. Penny will probably have contract offers to be a starter from other teams that were similar to the 1 year, $5 million contract that Penny signed with the Red Sox this season. To sign Penny, the Phillies would need to beat that offer and the Phillies may not want to commit that much money to a reliever.
Phillies sign Eric Hinske
Why it could work: With Matt Stairs unlikely to return for next season, the Phillies could use a left-handed hitting reserve outfielder and Hinske would fit in perfectly. He would also be a defensive improvement over Stairs. Hinske should be affordable and could also fill in at third base in a pinch. Hinske has also played on the last three American League champion teams, winning World Series titles with the Red Sox in 2007 and the New York Yankees in 2009. Hinske also struck out to record the final out for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series.
Potential Problems: There doesn't seem to be any drawbacks here though Hinske may prefer the American League or will look for more playing time.
Read more!
Showing posts with label j.a. happ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label j.a. happ. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Year End Wrap-Up
Well, that was tough to take. It was very evident that the Philadelphia Phillies did not play their best baseball in the World Series while the New York Yankees looked pretty damn good. Despite all of the attention that Brad Lidge and his perfect season received last year, this series showed how easy it is to take the end of a game for granted when a game is virtually over after seven or eight innings. Anyway, let's give out some season end awards for the Phillies and take a quick look at each individual Phillie's season and what could be in store for the future.
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
Read more!
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NLDS Preview
The start of the National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies is only a couple of hours away, so let's preview the series.
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
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Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Monitor Happ's Workload?
Right now, J.A. Happ should easily win the National League Rookie of the Year award.
He leads or is tied for the league among all National League rookies in ERA (2.59), shutouts (2), wins (10), strikeouts (93), WHIP (1.17) and is also second in innings pitched by one inning (135 2/3 to the Atlanta Braves' 34-year-old rookie Kenshin Kawakami).
The last stat could be cause for concern for the Phillies' phenom.
Since his first full professional season in 2005, Happ has thrown 78 1/3 innings, 160 2/3 innings, 122 1/3 innings and 166 2/3 innings, respectfully. Happ is in line to make eight more starts in the regular season and could make as many as six additional starts in the postseason. If Happ were only to pitch six innings in each of those starts, he would finish at 219 2/3 innings for the season or an increase of 53 innings over his previous career high. If that is the case, Happ should book his plane ticket to Birmingham, Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews for Tommy John surgery immediately.
The Phillies should be more economical in montoring Happ down the stretch run. Since June 3rd, Happ has failed to throw 100 or more pitches in a game only once (a blow up against the Caridnals on July 24th when he lasted just four innings). The Phillies' bullpen is fairly well rested (Phillies' starters have gone at least six innings this entire turn through the rotation) so there is no need to run Happ out there for a 7th inning if the Phillies have a comfortable lead and his pitch count is already high (this happened during Happ's last outing). To lower Happ's workload, the Phillies could also have him take an extra day or two off between starts and use Jamie Moyer for a spot start in Happ's place. This would also keep Happ fresher for the playoffs and they can increase Happ's workload if their playoff chances get dicey over the next month.
After all, the Phillies would not mortgage their future by giving up Happ for Roy Halladay so they might as well do everything in their power to make sure he can be a healthy part of their rotation for years to come.
Read more!
He leads or is tied for the league among all National League rookies in ERA (2.59), shutouts (2), wins (10), strikeouts (93), WHIP (1.17) and is also second in innings pitched by one inning (135 2/3 to the Atlanta Braves' 34-year-old rookie Kenshin Kawakami).
The last stat could be cause for concern for the Phillies' phenom.
Since his first full professional season in 2005, Happ has thrown 78 1/3 innings, 160 2/3 innings, 122 1/3 innings and 166 2/3 innings, respectfully. Happ is in line to make eight more starts in the regular season and could make as many as six additional starts in the postseason. If Happ were only to pitch six innings in each of those starts, he would finish at 219 2/3 innings for the season or an increase of 53 innings over his previous career high. If that is the case, Happ should book his plane ticket to Birmingham, Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews for Tommy John surgery immediately.
The Phillies should be more economical in montoring Happ down the stretch run. Since June 3rd, Happ has failed to throw 100 or more pitches in a game only once (a blow up against the Caridnals on July 24th when he lasted just four innings). The Phillies' bullpen is fairly well rested (Phillies' starters have gone at least six innings this entire turn through the rotation) so there is no need to run Happ out there for a 7th inning if the Phillies have a comfortable lead and his pitch count is already high (this happened during Happ's last outing). To lower Happ's workload, the Phillies could also have him take an extra day or two off between starts and use Jamie Moyer for a spot start in Happ's place. This would also keep Happ fresher for the playoffs and they can increase Happ's workload if their playoff chances get dicey over the next month.
After all, the Phillies would not mortgage their future by giving up Happ for Roy Halladay so they might as well do everything in their power to make sure he can be a healthy part of their rotation for years to come.
Read more!
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