The future of Pedro

The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.

Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.


The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.

Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.


According to Fangraphs, Feliz's defense has saved 4.4 runs this season. This is the third year in a row where is defense has declined. In 2007, Feliz's final year with the San Francisco Giants, Feliz's defense saved 21.7 runs and last year with the Phillies, Feliz saved 7.2 runs. Overall, Fangraphs estimates that Feliz's year has been valued at $6.5 million.

Feliz will be 35 next season, so his numbers should dip both offensively and defensively making the value of his expected 2010 performance close to the value of his option.

If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, they would need to fill the void externally as they do not have anyone who could start at third base in their minor league system. As stated earlier, it would be best for the Phillies to find a third baseman with superior defense.

Among starting Major League third basemen this season, the players who have provided better defense (via Fangraphs) than Feliz are Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Evan Longoria (Rays), Chone Figgins (Angels), Joe Crede (Twins), Adrian Beltre (Mariners), Brandon Inge (Tigers) and Casey Blake (Dodgers).

In that group, Zimmerman and Longoria are likely untouchable, Figgins, Crede and Beltre are free agents and Inge and Blake would be trade targets. Figgins projects as a Type A free agent and Beltre projects as a Type B free agent meaning that the Phillies would lose draft picks if they signed either one of them. Crede and Beltre are both represented by Scott Boras.

Chone Figgins is the prize of the free agent class and will likely have a number of suitors and should command a contract of well over 3 years and well over $10 million a year. The Phillies already have $96 million commited in payroll for next season before arbitration raises and free agents so Figgins will probably be too expensive for them. Figgins also would not fit well into the lineup given that the Phillies already have two leadoff-type hitters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.

Joe Crede would command a much more reasonable contract (he is signed this season to a 1 year/$2.5 million contract) but he is often injured and is rumored to be contemplating retirement. Any upside Crede may bring would be negated by the inevitable Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett platoon at third while Crede is injured.

Adrian Beltre would be an intriguing signing but is represented by Scott Boras and will only be 31 next season, so he will likely command a large contract. Fangraphs suggests Beltre has been worth just $6.9 million this season after being worth $18 million in 2008 and at least $12 million the past few seasons. However, Beltre could also benefit from a return to the National League. If the Phillies felt they could sign him to a contract less than Raul Ibanez's (3 years, $31.5 million), it might be worth passing on Feliz for him.

Brandon Inge had a monster first half for the Tigers and while he has cooled off in the second half, he is still having a career year and has been a key to the Tigers' run at the AL Central this year. Inge is signed for $6.6 million next year and according to FanGraphs has been worth $12.3 million this year so I imagine the price in that the Phillies would need to overpay to acquire Inge.

Casey Blake could be made expendable by the Dodgers if they resign Orlando Hudson to play second base and want to play minor leaguer Blake DeWitt at third next year. Blake is having the best defensive season of his career at third and has quietly put up a .272/.351/.459 line with sixteen home runs. He is signed for $6 million in 2010, $5.25 million in 2011 and has a $6 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for 2012. However, Blake is 36 and his numbers will probably tail off and given his track record, his defense may fall back to below average again throughout the remainder of his contract. If the Phillies could acquire him for a middling prospect, it might be worth the trade as his numbers are better than Feliz's.

Other possibilities for the Phillies could include Felipe Lopez (a free agent currently playing above average second base for the Brewers), Mark DeRosa (a free agent currently playing average third base for the Cardinals) or Eric Chavez (a release candidate by the Athletics who is solid defensively and signed for $12 million in 2010 but is currently injured)

In conclusion, the Phillies should inquire on the prices for Figgins, Beltre and Blake and if the prices are too high, as they most likely will be, they should pick up Feliz's option for 2010.