Wednesday, March 3, 2010

2010 MLB Predictions

It's that time of year again for my annual MLB predictions. I can't remember the first time I started posting these predictions but it has been a long time since I began.
Let's take a look at my predictions from the past three seasons:
2009-http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=56833359493~WS Prediction: Indians over Dodgers/Actual: Yankees over Phillies
2008-http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=7954199493~WS Prediction: Tigers over Dodgers/Actual: Phillies over Rays
2007-http://www.facebook.com/notes.php?id=7605929&start=50&hash=60dcb5dd3323db685a783c430764a2d1~WS Prediction: Twins over Astros/Actual: Red Sox over Rockies

Looking back on those predictions, it probably hasn't been the best idea to have a personal rule against picking the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox to win the World Series. It also looks like I had a strange affinity for picking different AL Central teams to win the World Series every year. Anyway, here are my 2010 predictions:

NL EAST
1) Phillies (91-71) (Offseason Grade: C-)
2) Braves (87-75) (D+)
3) Mets (80-82) (D)
4) Marlins (79-83) (F)
5) Nationals (68-94) (C+)

The talent in this division is there to prevent the Phillies from four-peating but it is not consolidated enough to make a defeat of the Phillies likely.

Philadelphia-Count me among the Phillies fans who did not like the big Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee swap (well at least the Cliff Lee portion of the trade) but it's hard to say that this team is not better on paper than the 2008 and 2009 World Series clubs. Halladay is an improvement over Lee, Placido Polanco is an improvement over Pedro Feliz and Danys Baez and Jose Contreras are....well, Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. The only thing coming in the way between a prediction of a third straight World Series is my aforementioned rule which bans myself from picking the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox to win the World Series.

Atlanta-The Braves finished 2009 strong but just outside of the playoffs. The Braves responded by trading their best pitcher last year (Javier Vazquez) for an unimpressive haul and spending their savings to make their bullpen more expensive, if not better. That being said, the Braves look to be in a good position to make another playoff push for manager Bobby Cox's final season before retirement.

New York-Clusterfuck is the only word I can think of to describe the Mets' 2009 season. With all of their key injuries last season, it will be almost impossible for the Mets to be worse this year. However, that does not mean that this will be a good squad in 2010. Jason Bay was a much needed, albeit overpaid, bat to go along with Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran. With holes at pretty much every other position and a lack of starting pitching depth, the Mets should not expect to make the playoffs this season.

Florida-I'm never a believer in the Marlins so take my 4th place prediction for what it's worth. However, I think the team overachieved in 2009 and failure to sign a single major league free agent (while losing key role players such as Jeremy Hermida and Kiko Calero) will only hurt this team. The team was wise to sign ace Josh Johnson to a long-term contract but that seemed to be the only effect of the union forcing the franchise to spend more money.

Washington-The Nationals would have had a really good offseason if they were any other team but the Nationals. Money spent on players like Jason Marquis, Adam Kennedy and Ivan Rodriguez could help a contending team make the playoffs. I do applaud the Nationals for bringing in low-risk, high-reward players such as Chien-Ming Wang and Matt Capps. The Nationals won't be the laughing stock of the league forever, but 2010 looks like it will be another last place finish for the club.

NL CENTRAL
1) Cubs (88-74) (D)
2) Cardinals (87-75) (B-)
3) Reds (85-77) (B)
4) Brewers (78-84) (B-)
5) Astros (71-91) (C-)
6) Pirates (64-98) (C)

The Cardinals are the favorites to repeat as NL Central Champions but the Reds, Brewers and Cubs provide enough intrigue that the division title will not be a cakewalk.

Chicago-Yes, sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling and in this case gut feeling is that the Cardinals won't make the playoffs this year. The Astros and the Pirates are terrible and I don't think the Reds and Brewers are quite good enough so that leaves...the Cubs. The Cubs acquired some non-talent in the offseason in John Grabow and Carlos Silva and players such as Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez aren't getting any younger. Nevertheless, the Cubs are just one year removed from being the team to beat in the (regular season) National League.

St. Louis-The Cardinals are the favorites in the NL Central and rightfully so, especially after bringing back Matt Holiday and signing Felipe Lopez. However, a lot of their success last year was based on career years (Joel Pineiro, Ryan Franklin). Some regression should also follow from their four big stars (Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). The team also lacks starting pitching depth and as a result may not be playing October baseball.

Cincinnati-I wish I hadn't been so lazy and had published this post earlier in the offseason so I could take credit for pegging Cincinnati and Baltimore as sleeper teams, but I did not do so, so as I result I look like a follower even though I liked this team before it was popular to do so. I expect Jay Bruce to have a breakout year to make up a passable, somewhat exciting young offense. The pitching staff is full of question marks (Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman) but if more than one of those starters can live up to, or exceed, their potential, the Reds will actually be decent this year.

Milwauee-The Brewers have a fetish for boring, innings-eater pitchers signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to join Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan (who at one point was still considering an "innings-eater") behind Yovani Gallardo. Their offense has some good stars (Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder) but in order to contend they'll need contributions from players outside of Braun and Fielder (notably Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart).

Houston-Teams without a huge payroll who already have a lot of money owed to old, albeit productive, veterans should not be giving 3 year, $15 million contracts to middle relievers (as Houston did with Brandon Lyon). General Manager Ed Wade also continued his infatuation with former Phillies signing Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers (the latter being a signing that I actually like). However, with a bad product on the field now and no help in the minors, it will be a long time until Houston will make the playoffs again.

Pittsburgh-I admire General Manager Neal Huntington's willingness to trade away players for prospects at the expense of fielding a mediocre club. However, with a couple of exceptions, he has brought in prospects with lower ceilings, complicating the Pirates' chances of making the playoffs in the future, let alone in 2010.

NL WEST
1) Diamondbacks (89-73) (C+)
2) Rockies (86-76) (D)
3) Dodgers (85-75) (F)
4) Padres (77-85) (B-)
5) Giants (71-91) (F)

The NL West looks like it will really evenly matched division this year as three teams have good chances to win the division and once again the 2nd place team could end up winning the NL Wild Card.

Arizona-I really don't like the Max Scherzer-Edwin Jackson swap but outside of that, the Diamondbacks have had a decent offseason, bringing in Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson and Ian Kennedy. If Brandon Webb and Chris Young have bounceback seasons, they will partner nicely with Dan Haren and Justin Upton to make a really good team, capable of pulling off a worst-to-first extended playoff run.

Colorado-The Rockies didn't too much to improve the club in the offseason but they probably did not need to do that much anyway as they are bringing back most of a decent team from last season. Both their lineup and the rotation is full of good, though not spectacular players but Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez are close to spectatuclar. It is asking a bit much too ask the team to repeat last year's Cinderella story, but they shouldn't be too far out of the playoffs.

Los Angeles-Divorce is a bitch and not just to the people involved with the divorce. Owner Frank McCourt's divorce has cost the franchise so much money that they weren't even able to offer arbitration to quality free agents in Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. The Dodgers have made the NLCS in each of the last two seasons but lack the financial flexibility (and prospects) to make major trades this year as they have done the past two seasons (acquiring Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, George Sherrill, Jim Thome, Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland midseason).

San Francisco-General Manager Brian Sabean's infatuation with old veterans way past their prime continued this offseason with his signings of Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff. Unfortunately for Giants fans, neither of these players can fix an already anemic offense. Their pitching staff may be the best in baseball but for the Giants to win ball games, they will actually need to score more runs than they give up.

San Diego-It's a real shame that this team doesn't have any money because the Padres could actually be decent this year. They quietly won a respectable 75 games last year. They have a number of exciting young players on their team but with the exception of Adrian Gonzalez, not many worthwhile veterans surrounding the veterans and once Adrian Gonzalez is unfortunately traded, no worthwhile veterans. It will be a rough year or two in San Diego, but this team will be back in playoff contention in that not too distant future.

AL EAST
1) Yankees (96-66) (A-)
2) Rays (93-69) (D)
3) Red Sox (90-72) (B+)
4) Orioles (81-81) (C-)
5) Blue Jays (65-97) (C)

The AL East has four teams that could be considered playoff quality and once again this division will be the most brutal in all of baseball with deserving teams watching the playoffs from home.

New York-The defending World Series champions got even better in the offseason acquiring Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez. Several of their important players such as Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are getting very old and the team will probably experience some regression from their 2009 campaign, but the Yankees should be favored to repeat as AL East champions.

Tampa Bay-Their offseason wasn't too inspiring with Rafael Soriano being their only significant acquisition but the Rays seem poised to make the playoffs in the AL East following 2009's "sophomore slump". With Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena in contract years, this could be a big year in Tampa. The teams has the depth of young players to move, if not the payroll, to make a significant trade deadline move to keep them afloat in the very tough AL East.

Boston-Giving over $80 million to an injury-prone pitcher in John Lackey will be a mistake in the long-term but he should bolster an already strong rotation. Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro were nice, defensive-minded acquistions but like most of this team are on the wrong side of thirty. They've got a great rotation and some great stars but they are too old and slow to make the playoffs in the AL East this season.

Baltimore-If this team was in the NL or the AL Central, they could be playoff contenders. They have a lot of young talent and should take a huge leap forward this year. Baltimore's also added a lot of pricey veterans (Miguel Tejada, Kevin Millwood, Garrett Atkins, Mike Gonzalez) so a run similar to the 2008 Rays is not out of the question but is highly unlikely. If the Orioles fall out of contention midseason, they should be able to trade off those veterans (and eat some salary) for some more useful young players to make a 2011 playoff push more likely.

Toronto-Think back to May 18, 2009. It's not that long ago. The Blue Jays just finished a four-game sweep of Chicago White Sox to improve their record to an AL-best 27-14 (and just a half-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball) and had a 3 1/2 game lead over the Red Sox in the division. The Blue Jays would then go on to lose their next nine games, finish the season 48-73 and trade their franchise pitcher, Roy Halladay, in the offseason. There are some glimmers of hope for a bright future in Toronto, but 2010 will be a straight up rebuilding year for the Blue Jays.

AL CENTRAL
1) Twins (88-74) (A-)
2) White Sox (86-76) (C-)
3) Tigers (80-82) (C+)
4) Indians (75-87) (C+)
5) Royals (58-104) (D-)

The AL Central is a rather weak division and if any team has a lot of breakout performances or savvy pickups, they will win the division (unless your team is based in Kansas City).

Minnesota-I like Nick Punto (former Phillie) and Brendan Harris (fellow William and Mary tribesman), but with all do respect to them, the Twins significantly upgraded their middle infield both offensively and defensively with the acquistions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson. This franchise is also resourceful enough to overcome the season-ending injury to Joe Nathan. They are bringing back most of last year's division-winning team so the Twins should be favorites to repeat in the AL Central.

Chicago-General Manager Kenny Williams did most of his offseason shopping last summer when je acquired (and overpaid for) Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. Consequently, Williams spent most of the offseason pretending it is still 2005, bringing the likes of Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel to Chicago. I'm open to Williams' idea of using a rotating designated hitter but with players like Russell Branyan and Jim Thome signing cheap contracts late in the offseason, signing a full-time DH might not have been a bad idea. Like every year, the White Sox will be OK and if the breaks happen the right away, they'll make the playoffs.

Detroit-I don't hate the Tigers' controversial offseason because it will allow them to free up a bunch of money for after the 2011 season without significantly hurting them in 2010. I also really like their swap of Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer. However, the Tigers are not a great team and will need a lot of players to have big rebound years (Maggio Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, etc.) to make the playoffs even in this weak division.

Cleveland-The trades of CC Sabathia, Mark DeRosa, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez clearly signify that the Indians are in rebuilding mode but their return for these players has been rather underwhelming. I do applaud the team for not wasting money on free agents in the offseason and Russell Branyan was a cheap signing who can be flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. LeBron James, not the Indians, will be the Indians will be the top sports story in Cleveland this season.

Kansas City-The Royals signed highly touted Cuban defector Noel Arguelles, but that's about the only thing right General Manager Dayton Moore did this offeason, also bringing in retreads such as Jason Kendall and Scott Podsednik. Outside of Zack Greinke, there's absolutely nothing to be excited for this franchise about in 2010 or in the future


AL WEST
1) Rangers (85-77) (B-)
2) Mariners (84-78) (A)
3) Angels (83-79) (D)
4) Athletics (82-80) (B-)

On paper, this division is looking like it might be the best playoff races in recent memory. All four of these teams are pretty average/slightly above average and I would not be surprised to see any of these teams win the division.

Texas-The 2009 Rangers fell a bit short of being the 2008 Rays but still have a ridiculous level of talent on the Major League club and in the Minor Leagues. In the offseason, the Rangers sacrificed stability (Kevin Millwood, Marlon Byrd) for risk (Rich Harden, Vladimir Guerrero). If those risks pay off large dividends, Josh Hamilton is healthy and effective and their young players continue to improve, Hamilton's prediction of the Rangers being a 96-win team could be underselling the club.

Seattle-No team had a more dramatic offseason than the Mariners bringing in Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley. For most teams coming of a winning season, those three players alone should be enough to make a team instant World Series favorites. However, much of the Mariners's success last year came from players having career years such as Russell Branyan (who is no longer with the team), Jarrod Washburn (also no longer on the team, but still a free agent) and David Aardsma. Their defense is excellent, but the team is still a power bat or two and possibly a starting pitcher (at least until Erik Bedard comes off of the disabled list) away from being a great team.

Los Angeles-They keep losing their star players (John Lackey, Mark Teixeira, Chone Figgins, Francisco Rodriguez) to bigger contracts elsewhere but the Angels as they have found suitable replacements such as Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui and Joel Pineiro (paying Brian Fuentes and Fernando Rodney over $14 million this year to replace Rodriguez is not suitable though). One of these years the Angels will collapse and I am going to say it is this year.

Oakland-148. That is the number of games started by an Oakland Athletic pitcher last year who was 26 or younger. The Athletics still put up a respectable 4.26 ERA. Improved defense, another year of maturity and a if healthy 1-2 starting pitching punch of Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer (who combined to throw 0 games in 2009) could put the Athletics in the upper echelon of pitching staffs in 2010. However, their offense needs Jake Fox or Jack Cust to turn into Jason Giambi and Adam Rosales or Kevin Kouzmanoff to turn itno Miguel Tejada for this offense to be respectable.

National League Wildcard
Phillies over Cubs in 3
Diamondbacks over Braves in 4 (Braves win one last game for Bobby Cox)

American League Wildcard
Yankees over Rangers in 3
Rays over Twins in 4

National League Division
Diamondbacks over Phillies in 6
Rays over Yankees in 7

World Series (Battle of the Class of 1997)
Rays over Diamondbacks in 5
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