Before you get too excited, the Phillies will not be trading Joe Blanton to the Toronto Blue Jays for Roy Halladay. However, that does not mean that the Phillies couldn't use Blanton to try to acquire Halladay.
Recent reports have indicated that the Phillies are open to the possibility of trading Blanton. These seems odd as the Phillies' only needs are pitching (since they signed Placido Polanco to play third base and addressed their bench needs by signing Juan Castro, Brian Schneider and Ross Gload). The back end of the Phillies' starting rotation is already uncertain, so trading Blanton would create an unnecessary hole. It would seem odd for the Phillies to trade Blanton for another pitcher. Blanton is going to be due an arbitration raise on his $5.5 million salary this year, but certainly the Phillies can afford that raise. So with so no non-pitching needs and an affordable salary, why are the Phillies considering trading Joe Blanton?
Perhaps, the Phillies are looking to obtain prospects. The Phillies are in anything but a rebuilding mode right now but they could flip some of these prospects to Toronto in a trade to acquire Halladay while keeping their farm system in tact. Trading Blanton would also allow the Phillies to free payroll space to afford Halladay's $15 million salary in 2010.
Read more!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
The top of the Lineup
It is being reported that the Phillies are close to signing free agent Placido Polanco to a three-year contract to play third base. The signing would give the Phillies three players (Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino) who could hit in the first two spots of the lineup. Therefore, the Phillies will need to move one of the three down in the lineup, most likely to the 7th spot.
Looking at the three players, it is obvious that one player definitely belongs at the top of the lineup:
Player #1: .292/.355/.446, 24 HR, 61/80 SB
Player #2: .295/.340/.407, 18 HR, 14/17 SB
Player #3: .262/.320/.429, 32 HR, 78/89 SB
Player #1 has been the best hitter of the three and the highest on-base percentage. Along with that, he is also a good baserunner having stolen sixty-one bases in the past two years and has only been thrown out nineteen times. He belongs at the top of the lineup.
Player #2 has the fewest stolen bases of the group but does have a higher on-base percentage than Player #3 which is a key to hitting at the top of the lineup.
The identities of these players are: 1) Victorino 2) Polanco 3) Rollins.
The Phillies should resist all temptations to move Victorino down in the lineup as he is much better suited as a leadoff hitter. It would make the most sense for the Phillies to move Rollins down in the lineup as he has more power than Polanco and he could be used to drive in runs. Polanco's superior on base percentage would allow him to get on base for the Phillies' offensive core to drive him in. An ideal Phillies' lineup for 2010 would look as follows:
CF Victorino
3B Polanco
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
SS Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz Read more!
Looking at the three players, it is obvious that one player definitely belongs at the top of the lineup:
Player #1: .292/.355/.446, 24 HR, 61/80 SB
Player #2: .295/.340/.407, 18 HR, 14/17 SB
Player #3: .262/.320/.429, 32 HR, 78/89 SB
Player #1 has been the best hitter of the three and the highest on-base percentage. Along with that, he is also a good baserunner having stolen sixty-one bases in the past two years and has only been thrown out nineteen times. He belongs at the top of the lineup.
Player #2 has the fewest stolen bases of the group but does have a higher on-base percentage than Player #3 which is a key to hitting at the top of the lineup.
The identities of these players are: 1) Victorino 2) Polanco 3) Rollins.
The Phillies should resist all temptations to move Victorino down in the lineup as he is much better suited as a leadoff hitter. It would make the most sense for the Phillies to move Rollins down in the lineup as he has more power than Polanco and he could be used to drive in runs. Polanco's superior on base percentage would allow him to get on base for the Phillies' offensive core to drive him in. An ideal Phillies' lineup for 2010 would look as follows:
CF Victorino
3B Polanco
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
SS Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz Read more!
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Phillies Trip?
I'll take a break from the hot stove to ask if anyone would be interested in taking a weekend trip at some point for a Phillies series in 2010. I have found five intriguing weekends on the schedule schedule:
May 28-30 at Florida Marlins: May 31 is also Memorial Day and the Phillies will be in Atlanta. That game could also be worked into the trip.
June 11-13 at Boston Red Sox
July 15-18 at Chicago Cubs: This is a Thursday-Sunday series right after the All-Star Game.
August 13-15 at New York Mets
August 27-29 at San Diego Padres: This series could also connected to a series with the Los Angeles Dodgers from August 30 (Monday) through September 1 (Wednesday).
If anyone is interested in any of these trips, let me know! Read more!
May 28-30 at Florida Marlins: May 31 is also Memorial Day and the Phillies will be in Atlanta. That game could also be worked into the trip.
June 11-13 at Boston Red Sox
July 15-18 at Chicago Cubs: This is a Thursday-Sunday series right after the All-Star Game.
August 13-15 at New York Mets
August 27-29 at San Diego Padres: This series could also connected to a series with the Los Angeles Dodgers from August 30 (Monday) through September 1 (Wednesday).
If anyone is interested in any of these trips, let me know! Read more!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Outrageous Offseason Ideas
If you are like me, you are probably sick of hearing the names Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney. We still have the entire offseason of discussing these players, so let's take a diversion and look at five trades and free agent signings that probably won't happen but could make sense for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Braves trade SP Derek Lowe to Phillies for RP Brad Lidge
Why it could work: Brad Lidge is a player who needs a change of scenery every few years. He struggled with the Houston Astros prior to his trade to the Phillies so another trade could help Lidge become a quality closer again. The Braves' top two relievers from 2009, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, are both free agents. Lowe struggled in his first year with the Braves but as a sinker ball pitcher, could see a rebound with the Phillies' excellent infield defense. The Braves have six starting pitchers under contract next year and are expected to trade Lowe or Javier Vazquez.
Potential problems: Both players have large contracts, with Lidge owed $36 million over the next three seasons and Lowe owed $45 million for the next three seasons. The Braves may not have confidence in Lidge to return to elite status and the Phillies may be reluctant to have a 37-year-old pitcher with declining numbers for the next three years. The Phillies have a full rotation already, although there is room to improve.
Nationals trade 3B Ryan Zimmerman to Phillies for SP J.A. Happ, SP Jamie Moyer, SP Antonio Bastardo, OF Michael Taylor and cash
Why it could work: The Phillies need a third baseman (preferrably a defensive standout) and Zimmerman fits that description perfectly and is an offesnive juggernaut as well. Zimmerman is only 25 and under contract through 2014. The Phillies have the pitching depth to give up three starting pitchers while the Nationals have a huge need for pitching as they currently have only one Major League-caliber starter (John Lannan). The Nationals have expressed an interest in acquiring a veteran starter to mentor the young pitching and Moyer is a perfect fit for them. Happ could be the Nationals' ace for next season and it would make sense for the Phillies to trade him now. Bastardo and Taylor are Major League ready but there may not be room for them on the Phillies roster so they could be expendable.
Potential Problems: Zimmerman is the face of the Nationals' franchise and by far their best player so the Nationals would be very reluctant to trade him. Happ, Bastardo and Taylor are not yet arbitration-eligible but Moyer is owed $6.5 million for next year (while Zimmerman is only owed $5 million) so the Nationals may require the Phillies to eat some of Moyer's salary.
White Sox trade RP Bobby Jenks and cash to Phillies for 3B Pedro Feliz
Why it could work: The Phillies need another reliever and the White Sox need a third baseman. Jenks will get a small arbitration raise over his $5.6 million salary from next year and Feliz has a $5 million option for 2010.
Potential problems: This trade was plausible a couple of weeks ago but since then the White Sox have traded for Mark Teahen to play third base and the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz's option for 2010. This trade will not happen.
Phillies sign Brad Penny
Why it could work: Last season, Penny had success in the National League with the San Francisco Giants after a disastrous stint in the American League with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Phillies could look to use Penny in the bullpen. Throughout his career, Penny has much better numbers against hitters the first time through the lineup than the second time. The Phillies could shift Penny to a starter if there is a vacancy in the rotation. Penny is a highly emotional pitcher who can start or relieve similar to Brett Myers, who will not be returning to the Phillies next year. Penny may also be motivated to pitch for the Phillies to defeat his former team, the Florida Marlins.
Potential Problems: As a career starter, Penny may have trouble or may be reluctant to shift to the bullpen. Penny will probably have contract offers to be a starter from other teams that were similar to the 1 year, $5 million contract that Penny signed with the Red Sox this season. To sign Penny, the Phillies would need to beat that offer and the Phillies may not want to commit that much money to a reliever.
Phillies sign Eric Hinske
Why it could work: With Matt Stairs unlikely to return for next season, the Phillies could use a left-handed hitting reserve outfielder and Hinske would fit in perfectly. He would also be a defensive improvement over Stairs. Hinske should be affordable and could also fill in at third base in a pinch. Hinske has also played on the last three American League champion teams, winning World Series titles with the Red Sox in 2007 and the New York Yankees in 2009. Hinske also struck out to record the final out for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series.
Potential Problems: There doesn't seem to be any drawbacks here though Hinske may prefer the American League or will look for more playing time.
Read more!
Braves trade SP Derek Lowe to Phillies for RP Brad Lidge
Why it could work: Brad Lidge is a player who needs a change of scenery every few years. He struggled with the Houston Astros prior to his trade to the Phillies so another trade could help Lidge become a quality closer again. The Braves' top two relievers from 2009, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, are both free agents. Lowe struggled in his first year with the Braves but as a sinker ball pitcher, could see a rebound with the Phillies' excellent infield defense. The Braves have six starting pitchers under contract next year and are expected to trade Lowe or Javier Vazquez.
Potential problems: Both players have large contracts, with Lidge owed $36 million over the next three seasons and Lowe owed $45 million for the next three seasons. The Braves may not have confidence in Lidge to return to elite status and the Phillies may be reluctant to have a 37-year-old pitcher with declining numbers for the next three years. The Phillies have a full rotation already, although there is room to improve.
Nationals trade 3B Ryan Zimmerman to Phillies for SP J.A. Happ, SP Jamie Moyer, SP Antonio Bastardo, OF Michael Taylor and cash
Why it could work: The Phillies need a third baseman (preferrably a defensive standout) and Zimmerman fits that description perfectly and is an offesnive juggernaut as well. Zimmerman is only 25 and under contract through 2014. The Phillies have the pitching depth to give up three starting pitchers while the Nationals have a huge need for pitching as they currently have only one Major League-caliber starter (John Lannan). The Nationals have expressed an interest in acquiring a veteran starter to mentor the young pitching and Moyer is a perfect fit for them. Happ could be the Nationals' ace for next season and it would make sense for the Phillies to trade him now. Bastardo and Taylor are Major League ready but there may not be room for them on the Phillies roster so they could be expendable.
Potential Problems: Zimmerman is the face of the Nationals' franchise and by far their best player so the Nationals would be very reluctant to trade him. Happ, Bastardo and Taylor are not yet arbitration-eligible but Moyer is owed $6.5 million for next year (while Zimmerman is only owed $5 million) so the Nationals may require the Phillies to eat some of Moyer's salary.
White Sox trade RP Bobby Jenks and cash to Phillies for 3B Pedro Feliz
Why it could work: The Phillies need another reliever and the White Sox need a third baseman. Jenks will get a small arbitration raise over his $5.6 million salary from next year and Feliz has a $5 million option for 2010.
Potential problems: This trade was plausible a couple of weeks ago but since then the White Sox have traded for Mark Teahen to play third base and the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz's option for 2010. This trade will not happen.
Phillies sign Brad Penny
Why it could work: Last season, Penny had success in the National League with the San Francisco Giants after a disastrous stint in the American League with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Phillies could look to use Penny in the bullpen. Throughout his career, Penny has much better numbers against hitters the first time through the lineup than the second time. The Phillies could shift Penny to a starter if there is a vacancy in the rotation. Penny is a highly emotional pitcher who can start or relieve similar to Brett Myers, who will not be returning to the Phillies next year. Penny may also be motivated to pitch for the Phillies to defeat his former team, the Florida Marlins.
Potential Problems: As a career starter, Penny may have trouble or may be reluctant to shift to the bullpen. Penny will probably have contract offers to be a starter from other teams that were similar to the 1 year, $5 million contract that Penny signed with the Red Sox this season. To sign Penny, the Phillies would need to beat that offer and the Phillies may not want to commit that much money to a reliever.
Phillies sign Eric Hinske
Why it could work: With Matt Stairs unlikely to return for next season, the Phillies could use a left-handed hitting reserve outfielder and Hinske would fit in perfectly. He would also be a defensive improvement over Stairs. Hinske should be affordable and could also fill in at third base in a pinch. Hinske has also played on the last three American League champion teams, winning World Series titles with the Red Sox in 2007 and the New York Yankees in 2009. Hinske also struck out to record the final out for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series.
Potential Problems: There doesn't seem to be any drawbacks here though Hinske may prefer the American League or will look for more playing time.
Read more!
Friday, November 6, 2009
Offseason Report
Yesterday, I looked a what the offseason would bring for the individual Phillies and today let's take a look at what lies ahead for the team.
As of today, the Phillies roster for 2010 is as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz*
C:
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pedro Feliz#
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett*
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF:
Others of note: John Mayberry
SP: Cliff Lee#
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Joe Blanton*
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jamie Moyer
RP:
RP: Tyler Walker*
RP: Clay Condrey*
RP: Chad Durbin
RP: J.C. Romero
RP: Ryan Madson
RP: Brad Lidge
Others of note: Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, Jack Taschner
*=The player is arbitration-eligible
#=Club option
Let's take a look at each position opening:
BACKUP CATCHER
If Paul Bako chooses not to retire, the Phillies could easily bring him back. Should Bako retire, the Phillies do not have an internal replacement so they will have to look elsewhere. The Phillies could reunite with Chris Coste or Sal Fasano. Other cheap options for the backup catcher include Henry Blanco, Josh Bard, Jose Molina or Miguel Olivo.
THIRD BASE
The Phillies need to decide by Monday on whether or not they will pick up Pedro Feliz's $5 million option for next year. As covered here, the decision to exercise the option is a tough decision. Free agent options include Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins while possible trade targets include Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Casey Blake. If the Phillies feel they can get one of these players for a reasonable price, they should decline Feliz's option and make the deal, otherwise it would be wise to bring back Feliz.
UTILITY INFIELDER
The Phillies do have Eric Bruntlett under team control for another year but the Phillies would probably want to sign someone more prolific offensively. While the top utility infielders such as Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez and Mark DeRosa may seek a starting role and be too expensive for the Phillies, they can sign a less costly option such as Rich Aurilia, Adam Kennedy or Craig Counsell. The Phillies could also opt to re-sign Miguel Cairo.
FIFTH OUTFIELDER
The Phillies could use a left-handed bat off of the bench to compliment Greg Dobbs and could use a fifth outfielder. The Phillies could choose to bring back Matt Stairs but may be reluctant to do so after his atrocious second half to the season. Other targets could include Eric Hinske, Randy Winn or Frank Catalanatto.
STARTING PITCHING
As expected, the Phillies exercised Cliff Lee's option today which gives the Phillies a five-man rotation for next year. However, there is still room for improvement in the rotation with Jamie Moyer coming off of an unproductive season and offseason surgery. To increase starting pitching depth, the Phillies could sign a pitcher coming off of injury such as Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard or Justin Duchscherer. Although the Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers, they could re-sign Pedro Martinez. The Phillies could also trade Happ in an attempt to sign a more veteran starter, such as Javier Vazquez, Roy Halladay or Bronson Arroyo.
BULLPEN
The biggest question mark in the bullpen is obviously the closer's role. Brad Lidge was untrustworthy in 2009 and Ryan Madson struggled when asked to close. The Phillies could use another good reliever and Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks could be available via trade while intriguing free agent options include J.J. Putz, Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins. The Phillies could also choose to bring back Chan Ho Park and/or Tyler Walker. Additionally, the club needs a left-handed reliever to complement J.C. Romero but may stay internal for the position (Scott Eyre (if he returns), Sergio Escalona or Antonio Bastardo).
Read more!
As of today, the Phillies roster for 2010 is as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz*
C:
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pedro Feliz#
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett*
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF:
Others of note: John Mayberry
SP: Cliff Lee#
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Joe Blanton*
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jamie Moyer
RP:
RP: Tyler Walker*
RP: Clay Condrey*
RP: Chad Durbin
RP: J.C. Romero
RP: Ryan Madson
RP: Brad Lidge
Others of note: Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, Jack Taschner
*=The player is arbitration-eligible
#=Club option
Let's take a look at each position opening:
BACKUP CATCHER
If Paul Bako chooses not to retire, the Phillies could easily bring him back. Should Bako retire, the Phillies do not have an internal replacement so they will have to look elsewhere. The Phillies could reunite with Chris Coste or Sal Fasano. Other cheap options for the backup catcher include Henry Blanco, Josh Bard, Jose Molina or Miguel Olivo.
THIRD BASE
The Phillies need to decide by Monday on whether or not they will pick up Pedro Feliz's $5 million option for next year. As covered here, the decision to exercise the option is a tough decision. Free agent options include Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins while possible trade targets include Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Casey Blake. If the Phillies feel they can get one of these players for a reasonable price, they should decline Feliz's option and make the deal, otherwise it would be wise to bring back Feliz.
UTILITY INFIELDER
The Phillies do have Eric Bruntlett under team control for another year but the Phillies would probably want to sign someone more prolific offensively. While the top utility infielders such as Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez and Mark DeRosa may seek a starting role and be too expensive for the Phillies, they can sign a less costly option such as Rich Aurilia, Adam Kennedy or Craig Counsell. The Phillies could also opt to re-sign Miguel Cairo.
FIFTH OUTFIELDER
The Phillies could use a left-handed bat off of the bench to compliment Greg Dobbs and could use a fifth outfielder. The Phillies could choose to bring back Matt Stairs but may be reluctant to do so after his atrocious second half to the season. Other targets could include Eric Hinske, Randy Winn or Frank Catalanatto.
STARTING PITCHING
As expected, the Phillies exercised Cliff Lee's option today which gives the Phillies a five-man rotation for next year. However, there is still room for improvement in the rotation with Jamie Moyer coming off of an unproductive season and offseason surgery. To increase starting pitching depth, the Phillies could sign a pitcher coming off of injury such as Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard or Justin Duchscherer. Although the Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers, they could re-sign Pedro Martinez. The Phillies could also trade Happ in an attempt to sign a more veteran starter, such as Javier Vazquez, Roy Halladay or Bronson Arroyo.
BULLPEN
The biggest question mark in the bullpen is obviously the closer's role. Brad Lidge was untrustworthy in 2009 and Ryan Madson struggled when asked to close. The Phillies could use another good reliever and Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks could be available via trade while intriguing free agent options include J.J. Putz, Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins. The Phillies could also choose to bring back Chan Ho Park and/or Tyler Walker. Additionally, the club needs a left-handed reliever to complement J.C. Romero but may stay internal for the position (Scott Eyre (if he returns), Sergio Escalona or Antonio Bastardo).
Read more!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Year End Wrap-Up
Well, that was tough to take. It was very evident that the Philadelphia Phillies did not play their best baseball in the World Series while the New York Yankees looked pretty damn good. Despite all of the attention that Brad Lidge and his perfect season received last year, this series showed how easy it is to take the end of a game for granted when a game is virtually over after seven or eight innings. Anyway, let's give out some season end awards for the Phillies and take a quick look at each individual Phillie's season and what could be in store for the future.
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
Read more!
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
Read more!
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Previewing Games 6 and 7
The Phillies certainly made it interesting last night, didn't they? But a win is a win, and the Phillies will be returning to Yankee Stadium for one or two more World Series games, so let's preview them!
Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
Read more!
Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
Read more!
Monday, November 2, 2009
Could the Phillies use a lineup shuffle?
Here is a challenge for you. I am going to show you a lineup full of pure statistics. Your objective is to tell me which batter looks out of place (and for the sake of this game, let's ignore the fact that the leadoff hitter has a .266 OBP):
Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)
So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!
Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.
Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:
CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)
However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz
Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.
Read more!
Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)
So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!
Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.
Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:
CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)
However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz
Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
World Series Preview
As you know, winning the World Series last year was fun. If the Phillies win this year, it will be even better. Once again, the Phillies are underdogs in the World Series but they are even less favored to win this year as they are being opposed by the 103-win New York Yankees. In the regular season, the Phillies went just 6-12 against the American League but went 2-1 against the Yankees and were a Brad Lidge blown save away from achieving a sweep in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Weird schedule could favor Phils
The Philadelphia Phillies will not play a baseball game tomorrow. The day off is rather strange since it comes between Game 4 and Game 5, both of which will be played at Citizens Bank Park. While it will be annoying not to watch the Phillies tomorrow (especially if they win tonight and are on the verge of clinching a World Series berth), this schedule quirk could work out well for the Phillies.If the Los Angeles Dodgers win either of the next two games, they will force a Game 6 to be played in Los Angeles on Friday, with a travel day off on Thursday. This will allow the Phillies to start their postseason stud, Cliff Lee, in Game 6, on normal rest. Moreover, should the series go to Game 7 (assuming the Cole Jamels starts in Game 5) the Phillies would have Pedro Martinez available to start on long rest and he excelled pitching on long rest in Game 2 of the NLCS. Lastly, since Game 1 of the World Series is set for Wednesday, October 28th, pitching Lee in Game 6 of the NLCS would allow him to start Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. While it means a day without baseball, tomorrow's off day could favor the Phillies in both the NLCS and the World Series, should they qualify.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
NLCS Preview
There is an old saying that familiarity breeds contempt. If that statement is true, then this should be an ugly National League Championship Series between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is already bad blood between the two teams stemming back from last year's NLCS. Moreover, several players have played for both teams including Jayson Werth, Pedro Martinez, Paul Bako, Chan Ho Park, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Jim Thome.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in the National League and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. However, the Dodgers are only four games over .500 since the All-Star Break. Their offense is full of right-handed hitters such as Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake. Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only left-handed hitters. Their pitching is solid with left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Wolf as well right-handers Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla. Their bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
Game 1 will feature new father Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against 21-year-old Kershaw for the Dodgers. Hamels has struggled on the road this year, posting just a 3-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. However, Hamels has been brilliant against the Dodgers this year posting a 1-0 record in 2 starts with just a 0.56 ERA. Hamels has a 1.12 ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career. Kershaw had a breakout season posting a 2.79 ERA and pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS but had just an 8-8 record in the regular season. Kershaw lost both of his appearances against the Phillies this year, but with the exceptions of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz, the Phillies' batters have not fared that well against Kershaw.
In Game 2, Martinez will oppose Padilla. Martinez has not pitched since September 30 and has logged only seven innings in the last month. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. In his career, Martinez is a 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA at Dodger Stadium. As a team the Dodgers have not fared very well against Martinez, especially Ramirez who has a line of .167/.194/.233 with no home runs in thirty at-bats. Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers after being released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the season. He also threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any of last season's bad feelings between the two teams re-emerges in this season it will probably be started by former Phillie Padilla, who has a reputation for throwing at opposing batters. With the exception of Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz (whom he has never faced), all of the Phillies' batters have at least a .900 career OPS against Padilla, who has not faced his ex-team this season.
Game 3 will feature Cliff Lee versus Kuroda. Lee was absolutely brilliant in the NLDS against the Rockies. However, the Dodgers have had success against Lee in their careers. Notably, Ramirez has a .429/.571/1.071 line against Lee with two home runs in fourteen at-bats against Lee. Kuroda was injured and did not pitch in the NLDS.It makes sense for the Dodgers to pitch Kuroda since he has been an absolute Phillies killer. Kuroda defeated the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS and has an 0.95 ERA against the Phillies in the regular season (although he only has 1 win in 3 starts). Collectively, the Phillies have hit .118/.179/.157 with no home runs in their careers against Kuroda.
The Phillies have not announced whether J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will start Game 4. Blanton might be the better pick here so Happ can be used in the bullpen to pitch to Loney and Ethier in late innings. Blanton started once against the Dodgers this season, allowing one run in six innings in a no-decision on June 6. The Dodgers will counter with Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA against the Phillies this season. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings in a start against the Cardinals in the NLCS. The top and bottom of the order have had success against Wolf as Rollins and Victorino are a combined 6-for-15 with 2 home runs off of Wolf while Feliz and Ruiz are a combined 9-for-23 with 4 home runs. Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are a combined 6-for-37 in the careers off of Wolf.
Other factors to consider:
*Clubhouse leader Brett Myers is not the NLCS roster. He is replaced by Chan Ho Park. Eric Bruntlett also replaced Kyle Kendrick on the roster.
*The Dodgers have not played a baseball game since Sunday.
*Brad Lidge recorded both of his save attempts against in the NLDS but Scott Eyre faced the first four batters in the ninth of Game 4 against the Rockies.
*The Dodgers were 4-3 against the Phillies in the regular season.
*Prediction: Phillies in 6 Read more!
Monday, October 12, 2009
Why I admire Chase Utley
Chase Utley is a badass. Of course you already knew that, but last night's game confirmed it. By now, the play in the ninth inning of yesterday's game has been shown over and over again where Utley hit an infield single to put runners on first and third with one out. Utley's hit set up Ryan Howard's game winning sacrifice fly. The instant replay clearly shows that the ball hit off of Chase Utley's leg and should have been ruled a foul ball. Moreover, it was very questionable whether Utley sohld have been called safe at first base.
While Rockies fans rightfully complain about the poor umpiring on that play (although the umpiring was also very poor on several pitches to Matt Stairs in the eighth), Utley deserves a lot of credit for making that play happen. When the ball bounced off of Utley's leg, he didn't recoil or stop and kept running as if the ball was in play. This caused the umpire to miss the fact that the ball should have been ruled foul. Then, since Utley was running hard to first base Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba needed to hurry the throw to first base which caused Todd Helton to come off the bag at first. Had Utley stopped running or cringed when the ball hit his leg, this key play would not have happened and the Phillies might not have won the ballgame. Read more!
While Rockies fans rightfully complain about the poor umpiring on that play (although the umpiring was also very poor on several pitches to Matt Stairs in the eighth), Utley deserves a lot of credit for making that play happen. When the ball bounced off of Utley's leg, he didn't recoil or stop and kept running as if the ball was in play. This caused the umpire to miss the fact that the ball should have been ruled foul. Then, since Utley was running hard to first base Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba needed to hurry the throw to first base which caused Todd Helton to come off the bag at first. Had Utley stopped running or cringed when the ball hit his leg, this key play would not have happened and the Phillies might not have won the ballgame. Read more!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NLDS Preview
The start of the National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies is only a couple of hours away, so let's preview the series.
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Similar to 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS, the Rockies are one of baseball's Cinderella stories. After starting the season 18-28, the Rockies replaced longtime manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies rebounded by posting a 73-42 record under Tracy which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the second best record in baseball in that stretch, behind only the New York Yankees. Tracy has induced breakout seasons from second baseman Clint Barmes, third baseman Ian Stewart and outfielder Seth Smith to along with expected strong performances from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Brad Hawpe. Their rotation is anchored by ace Ubaldo Jimenez and is bolstered solid innings-eaters Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis. Huston Street, who is having a nice bounce back season after having been acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the offseason, is their closer.
The Phillies have decided to go with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, respectively. Both of these games will be day games at home. The Phillies' use of two left handers will be beneficial because it could force Tracy to start weaker right-handed hitters Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs rather than Stewart and Smith. The Rockies rotation will be without a left-handed starter, since their lone rotation southpaw, Jorge de la Rosa (0-2, 11.17 ERA against the Phillies this season) will miss the series with a groin injury.
Lee faced the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, picking up the win while allowing one run over seven innings. Current Rockies are hitting just .233/.271/.349 against Lee with one home run in 48 at-bats. One concern with Lee is that he posted a 5.45 ERA in September. However, Lee has been hurt by an unlucky .378 batting average on balls in play. Lee's other peripheral statistics are in line with his performance earlier in the year, so he should be strong for the playoffs. Lee's opponent in Game 1 will be Jimenez who did not face the Phillies this season. While Jimenez defeated the Phillies in the 2007 NLDS, Jimenez possesses an 8.10 ERA against the Phillies in two regular season starts against them. Pedro Feliz is 3 for 4 with a home run in his career against Jimenez and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino all have a career OPS of over 1.000 against Jimenez.
Hamels, the Phillies' game 2 starter, was pounded in his one start against the Rockies this year, allowing seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. However, that was Hamels's first start of the year and he had just come off of a limited spring training due to injury. Due to that outing, it is not a surprise that current Rockies have excellent career numbers against Hamels. Hamels will be opposed by Cook, who is just two starts removed from a stint on the disabled list. Cook is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Phillies this season. Cook's sinker ball may work to his advantage at a home run park such as Citizens Bank Park but several of the Phillies' regulars have had success in their careers against Cook such as Jimmy Rollins (.379 average in 29 at-bats), Utley (.381 average and 11 RBI in 21 at-bats), Howard (.706 slugging percentage in 19 at-bats) and Jayson Werth (4 hits in 10 at-bats). It is also worth noting that Victorino only has one career hit in 12 at-bats against Cook, Matt Stairs is 3 for 3 with a home run against Cook and backup catcher Paul Bako is 3 for 7 with a home run against Cook.
The Phillies have not announced their starters for the rest of the series yet but Game 3 will be started by J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez. Happ may be used in the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2 since the bullpen only has two southpaws (Scott Eyre and Antonio Bastardo). If Happ is not used in the bullpen, it would make the most sense for him to start Game 3 since he threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on August 10th, striking out ten batters while allowing only four hits. Blanton and Martinez did not face the Rockies this season. The Rockies will counter in Game 3 with Hammel. Hammel is 1-0 against the Phillies this season with a 4.82 ERA in one start and one relief appearance. Collectively as a team, the Phillies have hit .385/.411/.692 against Hammel led by Stairs (5 for 8, 2 HRs), Raul Ibanez (4 for 8, HR) and Victorino (3 for 5).
Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies have announced their Game 4 starters yet but if the series goes that long, the Phillies could start whoever didn't start Game 3 between Happ, Blanton or Martinez or start Lee on three days' rest. The Rockies will either start Marquis or Jimenez on three days' rest.
While the pitching matchups appear to give the Phillies the edge in the series, there are several other factors to consider:
*The Phillies haven't been playing very good baseball lately. The team has just won 5 of their past 13 games.
*The Rockies have complied a 20-11 record in September and October and while the team dropped their final two games, they have compiled an 8-game winning streak and a 5-game winning streak in the last month.
*The Rockies are 51-30 at Coors Field this season.
*The Phillies are 4-2 against the Rockies this season but lost the opener of both series.
*The Rockies will have just two left-handed pitchers in the NLDS, relievers Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales.
*Injuries to Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero have forced the Phillies to place Kyle Kendrick and Bastardo on their playoff roster in the bullpen. Kendrick has spent most of the season as a starter in AAA Lehigh Valley, while Bastardo has thrown just one inning since being taken off of the disabled list and has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's a good thing the Phillies do not have any other concerns with their bullpen.
*Prediction: Phillies in 4.
Read more!
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Recent slide is not encouraging
The Phillies have not been playing very good baseball recently. The last few games have not technically mattered since the Phillies have clinched the division and have now secured the #2 seed in the National League playoffs and will host the Colorado Rockies in the National League Divisional Series (I will cover the first round matchup in a later post). However, this slump is still problematic for the Phillies.
Since the Phillies clinched the division, they have dropped four straight games. While benchwarmers such as Miguel Cairo and Andy Tracy have been seeing some playing time, most of the regulars are still in the starting lineup. Even though Charlie Manuel has been pulling his starting pitchers early in games, none of the starters has impressed lately. The last time a member of their current starting rotation had a quality start was back on September 22nd when Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings to beat the Florida Marlins 9-3.
These performances may not make a difference for the standings but teams that have had to coast for awhile have not done well in the playoffs. Last season, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Angels had been assured playoff spots well in advance of the postseason and those two teams managed to win just one playoff game between the two of them. While it is tough to simply turn a team around, the Phillies will be fortunate that the Rockies assured themselves of a playoff spot a few days ago. Read more!
Since the Phillies clinched the division, they have dropped four straight games. While benchwarmers such as Miguel Cairo and Andy Tracy have been seeing some playing time, most of the regulars are still in the starting lineup. Even though Charlie Manuel has been pulling his starting pitchers early in games, none of the starters has impressed lately. The last time a member of their current starting rotation had a quality start was back on September 22nd when Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings to beat the Florida Marlins 9-3.
These performances may not make a difference for the standings but teams that have had to coast for awhile have not done well in the playoffs. Last season, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Angels had been assured playoff spots well in advance of the postseason and those two teams managed to win just one playoff game between the two of them. While it is tough to simply turn a team around, the Phillies will be fortunate that the Rockies assured themselves of a playoff spot a few days ago. Read more!
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Playoff Rosters: Redux
A couple of weeks ago, Dan Trubman previewed the Phillies' potential playoff roster here. Since then, a few things have changed: injuries to Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer, the emergence of a closer (Ryan Madson) and the fact that the Phillies have actually clinched the National League East. The team still have several days before they need to finalize their roster for the playoffs but it can't hurt to see what the postseason roster would look like right now.Barring injury, the Phillies' offense is pretty much set for the playoffs as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner Read more!
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner Read more!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Maybe Charlie reads this blog
Before tonight's game against the Houston Astros, Charlie Manuel held a closed door meeting with the team. And the Phillies won. Good idea, Charlie.
Read more!
Monday, September 28, 2009
This team needs a spark
The Phillies are in dire need of a spark. They just completed a lackluster 5-5 road trip and after tonight's very flat 8-2 loss to the Houston Astros, the Phillies have now dropped five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the surging Atlanta Braves are just four games behind the Phillies for the National League East title. Moreover, as Todd Zolecki has pointed out, recent National League champions have played remarkably well in the stretch run. Simply put, this team needs some form of inspiration if they want to win the NL East or make another run in the playoffs.
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
Friday, September 18, 2009
A note
The Phillies have 17 games to play. They have a 7.5 game lead in the division. Don't fuck this up, boys.
Read more!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Beating the overshift
Tonight's game against the Washington Nationals featured the exception to the rule. Ryan Howard flared a ball onto the right side of the field that fell in between the second baseman and the right fielder.
Since Ryan Howard broke into the Major Leagues, opposing teams have employed the "overshift" when he is up to bat, meaning that the third baseman plays in the shortstop position, the shortstop plays in the second base position and the second baseman plays in shallow right field. This alignment has taken countless should-have-been base hits to right field away from Howard.
There may be a way for Howard to beat the overshift that does not involve hitting a lucky shot in between fielders.
Ryan Howard should consider occasionally trying to bunt down the third base line. As long as Howard can bunt the ball past the pitcher (which should not be too hard given Howard's strength), he will easily get a base hit. If Howard successfully executes these bunts on a consistent enough basis (only once or twice a month should suffice), opposing teams would be forced to adopt a more regular infield alignment leading to more base hits to right field for Howard.
Read more!
Since Ryan Howard broke into the Major Leagues, opposing teams have employed the "overshift" when he is up to bat, meaning that the third baseman plays in the shortstop position, the shortstop plays in the second base position and the second baseman plays in shallow right field. This alignment has taken countless should-have-been base hits to right field away from Howard.
There may be a way for Howard to beat the overshift that does not involve hitting a lucky shot in between fielders.
Ryan Howard should consider occasionally trying to bunt down the third base line. As long as Howard can bunt the ball past the pitcher (which should not be too hard given Howard's strength), he will easily get a base hit. If Howard successfully executes these bunts on a consistent enough basis (only once or twice a month should suffice), opposing teams would be forced to adopt a more regular infield alignment leading to more base hits to right field for Howard.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Building a 25 man roster (without Lidge).
First I want to thank Nick for letting me post here. But considering I'm like 80% of the comments, it only seems fair.
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Raul's struggles are nothing new
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui.
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui. Ibanez's summer swoon is nothing new to Phillies' left fielders as Pat Burrell underwent a similar dropoff from a hot start last season. Burrell's 2008 season is quite similar although slightly worse than Ibanez's 2009 season:
FIRST HALF
Pat Burrell (2008) .275/.404/.575 with 23 HR
Raul Ibanez (2009) .309/.367/.649 with 22 HR (Ibanez was injured from June 17 through the All-Star Break)
SECOND HALF
Pat Burrell .215/.313/.413 with 10 HR
Raul Ibanez .233/.321/.445 with 8 HR
PLAYOFFS
Pat Burrell .227/.346/.455 with 3 HR
Furthermore, Burrell's September was horrendus as he put up a line of .205/.322/.397 with just three home runs. However, Burrell was able to translate a poor September into a respectable showing in the postseason, keyed by the double in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the World Series which proved to be a game-winner. This September in just seven games, Ibanez is batting .304/.360/.696 with three home runs already. So far, Ibanez's 2009 season has tracked slightly above Burrell's 2008 season. If this trend continues, Ibanez should be in great shape for the Phillies' postseason.
Read more!
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui. Ibanez's summer swoon is nothing new to Phillies' left fielders as Pat Burrell underwent a similar dropoff from a hot start last season. Burrell's 2008 season is quite similar although slightly worse than Ibanez's 2009 season:
FIRST HALF
Pat Burrell (2008) .275/.404/.575 with 23 HR
Raul Ibanez (2009) .309/.367/.649 with 22 HR (Ibanez was injured from June 17 through the All-Star Break)
SECOND HALF
Pat Burrell .215/.313/.413 with 10 HR
Raul Ibanez .233/.321/.445 with 8 HR
PLAYOFFS
Pat Burrell .227/.346/.455 with 3 HR
Furthermore, Burrell's September was horrendus as he put up a line of .205/.322/.397 with just three home runs. However, Burrell was able to translate a poor September into a respectable showing in the postseason, keyed by the double in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the World Series which proved to be a game-winner. This September in just seven games, Ibanez is batting .304/.360/.696 with three home runs already. So far, Ibanez's 2009 season has tracked slightly above Burrell's 2008 season. If this trend continues, Ibanez should be in great shape for the Phillies' postseason.
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Friday, September 4, 2009
What could the Phillies look like?
For the past several weeks, Matthew Pouliot has run a series of articles at NBCSports.com called "Restoring the Rosters". Mr. Pouliot's excellent work shows what every Major League team would look like if players stayed with the team who originally signed them (for example, the Phillies' roster wouldn't include J.D. Drew since he never signed with the Phillies but would include Carlos Carrasco since he originally signed with the Phillies before he was traded to the Indians). Mr. Pouliot has been revealing one team a day and has five teams yet to reveal (the Phillies, Braves, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers). I will restore the Phillies' roster and see how it compares to Mr. Pouliot's when he posts his Phillies' roster.
STARTING ROTATION
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Gavin Floyd
J.A. Happ
Brett Myers
BULLPEN
Ryan Madson
Josh Outman
Taylor Buchholz
Geoff Geary
Carlos Silva
Sergio Escalona
Robinson Tejeda
That is an excellent starting rotation with no weak links. I still believe that Hamels will be a bona fide ace and he is complemented by four #2-#3 starters. Outman could slide into the rotation if there is an injury to one of the starting pitchers. Silva could also move into the rotation, but that should be a last resort. When healthy, the bullpen would be decent but this season injuries to Outman and Buchholz would force the Phillies to rely on too many innings from Geary (who is currently struggling in AAA after having a great season for Houston last year), Escalona and Tejeda. Adam Eaton fails to make the cut. Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo or Kyle Drabek could make the roster in a year or two.
LINEUP
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Michael Bourn
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
3B Scott Rolen
RF Marlon Byrd
C Carlos Ruiz
BENCH
C Jason Jaramillo
IF Nick Punto
UTIL Marlon Anderson
OF Jason Michaels
OF Greg Golson
The Phillies' lineup looks very solid. Bourn could be dropped down in the batting order, Utley could moved to the second slot in the lineup and Rolen or Byrd could bat third to break up the three lefties in a row. Their infield defense is excellent and while Byrd is a stretch to play right field, he would certainly be an improvement over having Burrell play right. The Phillies could stand to have an improvement at catcher but both Mike Lieberthal and Johnny Estrada are out of baseball. The bench is rather weak, though Punto could be used to spell the oft-injured Rolen at third. Michaels would be okay as a right-handed pinch hitter. Anderson is currently playing for the independent Newark Bears but if he doesn't qualify, Indians' minor leaguer Jason Donald would get the final bench spot.
If the Phillies' starting roster were to stay healthy, they would be a very dangerous team. However, the only real depth on this team is provided by Outman, Silva and Punto so staying injury-free would be a must.
What changes would you make to my restored roster? Post them in the comments section and we will see in a couple of days how my roster compares to Matthew Pouliot's roster.
Read more!
STARTING ROTATION
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Gavin Floyd
J.A. Happ
Brett Myers
BULLPEN
Ryan Madson
Josh Outman
Taylor Buchholz
Geoff Geary
Carlos Silva
Sergio Escalona
Robinson Tejeda
That is an excellent starting rotation with no weak links. I still believe that Hamels will be a bona fide ace and he is complemented by four #2-#3 starters. Outman could slide into the rotation if there is an injury to one of the starting pitchers. Silva could also move into the rotation, but that should be a last resort. When healthy, the bullpen would be decent but this season injuries to Outman and Buchholz would force the Phillies to rely on too many innings from Geary (who is currently struggling in AAA after having a great season for Houston last year), Escalona and Tejeda. Adam Eaton fails to make the cut. Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo or Kyle Drabek could make the roster in a year or two.
LINEUP
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Michael Bourn
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
3B Scott Rolen
RF Marlon Byrd
C Carlos Ruiz
BENCH
C Jason Jaramillo
IF Nick Punto
UTIL Marlon Anderson
OF Jason Michaels
OF Greg Golson
The Phillies' lineup looks very solid. Bourn could be dropped down in the batting order, Utley could moved to the second slot in the lineup and Rolen or Byrd could bat third to break up the three lefties in a row. Their infield defense is excellent and while Byrd is a stretch to play right field, he would certainly be an improvement over having Burrell play right. The Phillies could stand to have an improvement at catcher but both Mike Lieberthal and Johnny Estrada are out of baseball. The bench is rather weak, though Punto could be used to spell the oft-injured Rolen at third. Michaels would be okay as a right-handed pinch hitter. Anderson is currently playing for the independent Newark Bears but if he doesn't qualify, Indians' minor leaguer Jason Donald would get the final bench spot.
If the Phillies' starting roster were to stay healthy, they would be a very dangerous team. However, the only real depth on this team is provided by Outman, Silva and Punto so staying injury-free would be a must.
What changes would you make to my restored roster? Post them in the comments section and we will see in a couple of days how my roster compares to Matthew Pouliot's roster.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The future of Pedro
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
According to Fangraphs, Feliz's defense has saved 4.4 runs this season. This is the third year in a row where is defense has declined. In 2007, Feliz's final year with the San Francisco Giants, Feliz's defense saved 21.7 runs and last year with the Phillies, Feliz saved 7.2 runs. Overall, Fangraphs estimates that Feliz's year has been valued at $6.5 million.
Feliz will be 35 next season, so his numbers should dip both offensively and defensively making the value of his expected 2010 performance close to the value of his option.
If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, they would need to fill the void externally as they do not have anyone who could start at third base in their minor league system. As stated earlier, it would be best for the Phillies to find a third baseman with superior defense.
Among starting Major League third basemen this season, the players who have provided better defense (via Fangraphs) than Feliz are Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Evan Longoria (Rays), Chone Figgins (Angels), Joe Crede (Twins), Adrian Beltre (Mariners), Brandon Inge (Tigers) and Casey Blake (Dodgers).
In that group, Zimmerman and Longoria are likely untouchable, Figgins, Crede and Beltre are free agents and Inge and Blake would be trade targets. Figgins projects as a Type A free agent and Beltre projects as a Type B free agent meaning that the Phillies would lose draft picks if they signed either one of them. Crede and Beltre are both represented by Scott Boras.
Chone Figgins is the prize of the free agent class and will likely have a number of suitors and should command a contract of well over 3 years and well over $10 million a year. The Phillies already have $96 million commited in payroll for next season before arbitration raises and free agents so Figgins will probably be too expensive for them. Figgins also would not fit well into the lineup given that the Phillies already have two leadoff-type hitters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.
Joe Crede would command a much more reasonable contract (he is signed this season to a 1 year/$2.5 million contract) but he is often injured and is rumored to be contemplating retirement. Any upside Crede may bring would be negated by the inevitable Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett platoon at third while Crede is injured.
Adrian Beltre would be an intriguing signing but is represented by Scott Boras and will only be 31 next season, so he will likely command a large contract. Fangraphs suggests Beltre has been worth just $6.9 million this season after being worth $18 million in 2008 and at least $12 million the past few seasons. However, Beltre could also benefit from a return to the National League. If the Phillies felt they could sign him to a contract less than Raul Ibanez's (3 years, $31.5 million), it might be worth passing on Feliz for him.
Brandon Inge had a monster first half for the Tigers and while he has cooled off in the second half, he is still having a career year and has been a key to the Tigers' run at the AL Central this year. Inge is signed for $6.6 million next year and according to FanGraphs has been worth $12.3 million this year so I imagine the price in that the Phillies would need to overpay to acquire Inge.
Casey Blake could be made expendable by the Dodgers if they resign Orlando Hudson to play second base and want to play minor leaguer Blake DeWitt at third next year. Blake is having the best defensive season of his career at third and has quietly put up a .272/.351/.459 line with sixteen home runs. He is signed for $6 million in 2010, $5.25 million in 2011 and has a $6 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for 2012. However, Blake is 36 and his numbers will probably tail off and given his track record, his defense may fall back to below average again throughout the remainder of his contract. If the Phillies could acquire him for a middling prospect, it might be worth the trade as his numbers are better than Feliz's.
Other possibilities for the Phillies could include Felipe Lopez (a free agent currently playing above average second base for the Brewers), Mark DeRosa (a free agent currently playing average third base for the Cardinals) or Eric Chavez (a release candidate by the Athletics who is solid defensively and signed for $12 million in 2010 but is currently injured)
In conclusion, the Phillies should inquire on the prices for Figgins, Beltre and Blake and if the prices are too high, as they most likely will be, they should pick up Feliz's option for 2010.
Read more!
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
According to Fangraphs, Feliz's defense has saved 4.4 runs this season. This is the third year in a row where is defense has declined. In 2007, Feliz's final year with the San Francisco Giants, Feliz's defense saved 21.7 runs and last year with the Phillies, Feliz saved 7.2 runs. Overall, Fangraphs estimates that Feliz's year has been valued at $6.5 million.
Feliz will be 35 next season, so his numbers should dip both offensively and defensively making the value of his expected 2010 performance close to the value of his option.
If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, they would need to fill the void externally as they do not have anyone who could start at third base in their minor league system. As stated earlier, it would be best for the Phillies to find a third baseman with superior defense.
Among starting Major League third basemen this season, the players who have provided better defense (via Fangraphs) than Feliz are Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Evan Longoria (Rays), Chone Figgins (Angels), Joe Crede (Twins), Adrian Beltre (Mariners), Brandon Inge (Tigers) and Casey Blake (Dodgers).
In that group, Zimmerman and Longoria are likely untouchable, Figgins, Crede and Beltre are free agents and Inge and Blake would be trade targets. Figgins projects as a Type A free agent and Beltre projects as a Type B free agent meaning that the Phillies would lose draft picks if they signed either one of them. Crede and Beltre are both represented by Scott Boras.
Chone Figgins is the prize of the free agent class and will likely have a number of suitors and should command a contract of well over 3 years and well over $10 million a year. The Phillies already have $96 million commited in payroll for next season before arbitration raises and free agents so Figgins will probably be too expensive for them. Figgins also would not fit well into the lineup given that the Phillies already have two leadoff-type hitters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.
Joe Crede would command a much more reasonable contract (he is signed this season to a 1 year/$2.5 million contract) but he is often injured and is rumored to be contemplating retirement. Any upside Crede may bring would be negated by the inevitable Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett platoon at third while Crede is injured.
Adrian Beltre would be an intriguing signing but is represented by Scott Boras and will only be 31 next season, so he will likely command a large contract. Fangraphs suggests Beltre has been worth just $6.9 million this season after being worth $18 million in 2008 and at least $12 million the past few seasons. However, Beltre could also benefit from a return to the National League. If the Phillies felt they could sign him to a contract less than Raul Ibanez's (3 years, $31.5 million), it might be worth passing on Feliz for him.
Brandon Inge had a monster first half for the Tigers and while he has cooled off in the second half, he is still having a career year and has been a key to the Tigers' run at the AL Central this year. Inge is signed for $6.6 million next year and according to FanGraphs has been worth $12.3 million this year so I imagine the price in that the Phillies would need to overpay to acquire Inge.
Casey Blake could be made expendable by the Dodgers if they resign Orlando Hudson to play second base and want to play minor leaguer Blake DeWitt at third next year. Blake is having the best defensive season of his career at third and has quietly put up a .272/.351/.459 line with sixteen home runs. He is signed for $6 million in 2010, $5.25 million in 2011 and has a $6 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for 2012. However, Blake is 36 and his numbers will probably tail off and given his track record, his defense may fall back to below average again throughout the remainder of his contract. If the Phillies could acquire him for a middling prospect, it might be worth the trade as his numbers are better than Feliz's.
Other possibilities for the Phillies could include Felipe Lopez (a free agent currently playing above average second base for the Brewers), Mark DeRosa (a free agent currently playing average third base for the Cardinals) or Eric Chavez (a release candidate by the Athletics who is solid defensively and signed for $12 million in 2010 but is currently injured)
In conclusion, the Phillies should inquire on the prices for Figgins, Beltre and Blake and if the prices are too high, as they most likely will be, they should pick up Feliz's option for 2010.
Read more!
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Monitor Happ's Workload?
Right now, J.A. Happ should easily win the National League Rookie of the Year award.
He leads or is tied for the league among all National League rookies in ERA (2.59), shutouts (2), wins (10), strikeouts (93), WHIP (1.17) and is also second in innings pitched by one inning (135 2/3 to the Atlanta Braves' 34-year-old rookie Kenshin Kawakami).
The last stat could be cause for concern for the Phillies' phenom.
Since his first full professional season in 2005, Happ has thrown 78 1/3 innings, 160 2/3 innings, 122 1/3 innings and 166 2/3 innings, respectfully. Happ is in line to make eight more starts in the regular season and could make as many as six additional starts in the postseason. If Happ were only to pitch six innings in each of those starts, he would finish at 219 2/3 innings for the season or an increase of 53 innings over his previous career high. If that is the case, Happ should book his plane ticket to Birmingham, Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews for Tommy John surgery immediately.
The Phillies should be more economical in montoring Happ down the stretch run. Since June 3rd, Happ has failed to throw 100 or more pitches in a game only once (a blow up against the Caridnals on July 24th when he lasted just four innings). The Phillies' bullpen is fairly well rested (Phillies' starters have gone at least six innings this entire turn through the rotation) so there is no need to run Happ out there for a 7th inning if the Phillies have a comfortable lead and his pitch count is already high (this happened during Happ's last outing). To lower Happ's workload, the Phillies could also have him take an extra day or two off between starts and use Jamie Moyer for a spot start in Happ's place. This would also keep Happ fresher for the playoffs and they can increase Happ's workload if their playoff chances get dicey over the next month.
After all, the Phillies would not mortgage their future by giving up Happ for Roy Halladay so they might as well do everything in their power to make sure he can be a healthy part of their rotation for years to come.
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He leads or is tied for the league among all National League rookies in ERA (2.59), shutouts (2), wins (10), strikeouts (93), WHIP (1.17) and is also second in innings pitched by one inning (135 2/3 to the Atlanta Braves' 34-year-old rookie Kenshin Kawakami).
The last stat could be cause for concern for the Phillies' phenom.
Since his first full professional season in 2005, Happ has thrown 78 1/3 innings, 160 2/3 innings, 122 1/3 innings and 166 2/3 innings, respectfully. Happ is in line to make eight more starts in the regular season and could make as many as six additional starts in the postseason. If Happ were only to pitch six innings in each of those starts, he would finish at 219 2/3 innings for the season or an increase of 53 innings over his previous career high. If that is the case, Happ should book his plane ticket to Birmingham, Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews for Tommy John surgery immediately.
The Phillies should be more economical in montoring Happ down the stretch run. Since June 3rd, Happ has failed to throw 100 or more pitches in a game only once (a blow up against the Caridnals on July 24th when he lasted just four innings). The Phillies' bullpen is fairly well rested (Phillies' starters have gone at least six innings this entire turn through the rotation) so there is no need to run Happ out there for a 7th inning if the Phillies have a comfortable lead and his pitch count is already high (this happened during Happ's last outing). To lower Happ's workload, the Phillies could also have him take an extra day or two off between starts and use Jamie Moyer for a spot start in Happ's place. This would also keep Happ fresher for the playoffs and they can increase Happ's workload if their playoff chances get dicey over the next month.
After all, the Phillies would not mortgage their future by giving up Happ for Roy Halladay so they might as well do everything in their power to make sure he can be a healthy part of their rotation for years to come.
Read more!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Who needs a closer?
As has been one of the recurring themes of the Phillies this season, just when Brad Lidge looked like he has finally gotten into a groove as closer, he blows another game as what happened last night in Pittsburgh. As good as Lidge says he feels, the Phillies cannot continue to go forward with a closer who blows over a quarter of his games.
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
Saturday, August 22, 2009
The Brett Myers Situation
Brett Myers is set to rejoin the Phillies soon but the question is for long?
Myers, the Phillies' opening day starter for the past three seasons, is set to be a free agent after 2009, the final year of a 3 year, $25.75 million contract.
The Phillies have the power to offer Myers arbitration after the season and since he is currently on the cusp of being a Type B free agent, they may receive a compensatory draft pick if he rejects arbitration and signs with another team. However, I would expect Myers to accept arbitration since he seems to enjoy playing for the Phillies and could get a salary close to the $12 million he is making this year, a number is unlikely to find on the free agent market.
It would make sense for the Phillies to not offer Myers arbitration and attempt to re-sign him as a free agent. I imagine Myers and the Phillies would agree to a contract around 2 year, $14 million and he would provide a great amount of depth for Phillies' pitching next year. The Phillies' first four members of their starting rotation seem set for next season with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton. Jamie Moyer will probably get another shot at the fifth spot in the rotation with Kyle Drabek waiting in AA Reading or AAA Lehigh Valley.
Therefore, the Phillies could place Myers in the bullpen to begin next year and move him into the rotation if there is an injury to a starter. Myers could also step in as closer if Brad Lidge continues to falter. However, having a player in that role is a luxury and if another team is willing to pay Myers bigger money (such as a deal similar to the 3 year, $36 million deal Oliver Perez signed with the Mets in the offseason), the Phillies would be wise letting Myers move on and saving that money to fill any new needs that arise.
Read more!
Myers, the Phillies' opening day starter for the past three seasons, is set to be a free agent after 2009, the final year of a 3 year, $25.75 million contract.
The Phillies have the power to offer Myers arbitration after the season and since he is currently on the cusp of being a Type B free agent, they may receive a compensatory draft pick if he rejects arbitration and signs with another team. However, I would expect Myers to accept arbitration since he seems to enjoy playing for the Phillies and could get a salary close to the $12 million he is making this year, a number is unlikely to find on the free agent market.
It would make sense for the Phillies to not offer Myers arbitration and attempt to re-sign him as a free agent. I imagine Myers and the Phillies would agree to a contract around 2 year, $14 million and he would provide a great amount of depth for Phillies' pitching next year. The Phillies' first four members of their starting rotation seem set for next season with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton. Jamie Moyer will probably get another shot at the fifth spot in the rotation with Kyle Drabek waiting in AA Reading or AAA Lehigh Valley.
Therefore, the Phillies could place Myers in the bullpen to begin next year and move him into the rotation if there is an injury to a starter. Myers could also step in as closer if Brad Lidge continues to falter. However, having a player in that role is a luxury and if another team is willing to pay Myers bigger money (such as a deal similar to the 3 year, $36 million deal Oliver Perez signed with the Mets in the offseason), the Phillies would be wise letting Myers move on and saving that money to fill any new needs that arise.
Read more!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Stay away from Billy the Kid
Today marked the return of former Phillies closer Billy Wagner for the New York Mets following a year-long sting on the disabled list. Wagner threw a scoreless inning for the Mets in a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves. However, before Wagner even threw a pitch, he was placed on waivers by the Mets. This has stirred up some speculation that the Phillies may be interested in re-acquiring their former All-Star.
However, it would be wise for the Phillies to take a pass on Wagner.
If the Phillies were to claim Wagner off of waivers, they would be responsible for paying the remaining $2.7 million on Wagner's contract which is more than Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey are making for the entire season.
The Phillies also have an abudnance of left-handed relivers. Scott Eyre has done a very good job as the primary lefty out of the pen while J.C. Romero has been on the disabled list. Jamie Moyer was also excellent in his first relief appearance on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Minor leaguers Jack Taschner and Sergio Escalona have also proved themselves capable in short stints with the big league team this year.
One option for Wagner would be to use him in the closer's role where both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have struggled so far this year. Wagner does have 385 career saves but trusting the ninth inning to a 38-year-old coming off of major injury would be a major leap of faith for the Phillies. It would make more sense for the Phillies to continue to gut out the closer's role with Lidge or experiement with two-inning saves for Chan Ho Park.
Lastly, Billy Wagner has proven to be a bad teammate with both the Phillies and the Mets. His presence in the clubhouse could create an unnecessary distraction for a clubhouse that appears to be unified and is cruising towards their third straight division title.
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However, it would be wise for the Phillies to take a pass on Wagner.
If the Phillies were to claim Wagner off of waivers, they would be responsible for paying the remaining $2.7 million on Wagner's contract which is more than Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey are making for the entire season.
The Phillies also have an abudnance of left-handed relivers. Scott Eyre has done a very good job as the primary lefty out of the pen while J.C. Romero has been on the disabled list. Jamie Moyer was also excellent in his first relief appearance on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Minor leaguers Jack Taschner and Sergio Escalona have also proved themselves capable in short stints with the big league team this year.
One option for Wagner would be to use him in the closer's role where both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have struggled so far this year. Wagner does have 385 career saves but trusting the ninth inning to a 38-year-old coming off of major injury would be a major leap of faith for the Phillies. It would make more sense for the Phillies to continue to gut out the closer's role with Lidge or experiement with two-inning saves for Chan Ho Park.
Lastly, Billy Wagner has proven to be a bad teammate with both the Phillies and the Mets. His presence in the clubhouse could create an unnecessary distraction for a clubhouse that appears to be unified and is cruising towards their third straight division title.
Read more!
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