Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
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Kendrick has 4 K's in 16 IP. Unless he's Bob Tewksbury-- and his 16 hits allowed suggest the Texas Tewksbury more than the St. Louis version-- he's not an option. I would rather start Escalona for an inning or two than wait for Kendrick's luck to run out when it matters most. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteKendrick isn't striking anyone out but he's keeping the ball in the park (1 HR in 16 2/3 innings this season) and isn't walking very many batters (4 on the season and just 1 in September). Kendrick's FIP is 4.10 which is lower than Happ's (4.36) and Blanton's (4.44). Sure, Kendrick's sample size is small but I'd like to see what he can do in a couple of starts down the stretch. Even if he doesn't make the playoff rotation or even the bullpen, they could do what they did with him last year and have him travel with the team as an injury replacement.
ReplyDeleteKendrick's track record for K's is poor: 68 in 155.2 IP in 2008, 49 in 121 IP in his "breakthrough" 2007. His HRs allowed weren't great either: 23 in 2008, 16 in 2007. Odds are the HRs will regress to the mean. I just wouldn't want to take those odds in a game that counts.
ReplyDeleteWell, the real answer is we'll have to fucking wait and see, isn't it? There is no reason not to let him start once or twice, if only to let Happ and Pedro rest up. BTW, I think I mentioned this to Nick, but wtf did you think was going to happen to Pedro when you let him throw 254 pitches in 2 starts? I know it was electrifying to see him go 8 against the mets, but Charlie was just asking for this injury. Magic number is 6 with 12 games to go, the real question to ask is if trying to secure home field advantage is worth the price, or could the Phillies just rest up and start Durbin a few times, cause it doesn't seem like he's going to on the 25 man roster.
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