Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Building a 25 man roster (without Lidge).

First I want to thank Nick for letting me post here. But considering I'm like 80% of the comments, it only seems fair.

So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.

One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.

First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.

Position Players (9):

Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth

Pitchers (8):

Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero

That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.

Position Players (3):

Ben Francisco

This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).

Matt Stairs

Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.

Eric Bruntlett

Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.

That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.

Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.

Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.

For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.

Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.

For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.

For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.


So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.

4 comments:

  1. I noticed you left Chad Durbin off of the team as well but your roster still includes five "long men" bullpen arms--Park, Condrey, Walker, Moyer and Martinez (or whichever starter gets bumped from the rotation). I think one of those four will need to be left off of the playoff roster in favor of another bench bat (Dobbs if he's healthy or Cairo if he's not).

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  2. Well, I think that if Durbin had pitched better this year, he would have deserved a spot. And leaving Dobbs off the roster was the hardest decision to make. But he hasn't really been impressive this year, and I thought it was important to give Charlie lots of options in the pen so he can go with whoever is hot. What did you think about leaving off Lidge?

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  3. 25 man roster
    Ryan Howard
    Jimmy Rollins
    Chase Utley
    Pedro Feliz
    Carlos Ruiz
    Paul Bako
    Paul Ibanez
    Shane Victorino
    Jayson Werth
    Matt Stairs
    Ben Fransico
    Eric Bruntlett
    Joe Blanton
    Cole Hamels
    J.A. Happ
    Cliff Lee
    Ryan Madson
    Pedro Martinez
    Chan Ho Park
    J.C. Romero
    Brett Myers
    Tyler Walker
    Scott Eyre
    Clay Condry
    Brad Lidge

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  4. I'm sorry Sam, if you are going to have Brad Lidge, you're going to have to justify.

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