A couple of weeks ago, Dan Trubman previewed the Phillies' potential playoff roster here. Since then, a few things have changed: injuries to Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer, the emergence of a closer (Ryan Madson) and the fact that the Phillies have actually clinched the National League East. The team still have several days before they need to finalize their roster for the playoffs but it can't hurt to see what the postseason roster would look like right now.Barring injury, the Phillies' offense is pretty much set for the playoffs as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Paul Bako
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Pedro Feliz
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Matt Stairs
That is 13 position players that the Phillies will definitely bring to the playoffs. The only possible addition among position players would be utilityman Miguel Cairo.
The following pitchers will definitely included on the postseason roster (barring further injury):
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Pedro Martinez
J.A. Happ
Ryan Madson
That brings the roster to a total of 19 players. Martinez would likely be the fourth starter and Happ would go to the bullpen due to a lack of left-handed relievers, Happ's success in the bullpen earlier in the season and Martinez's struggles in the first inning this season (opponents are hitting .305/.390/.700 against Martinez in the first inning). Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero will also be added the postseason roster if they are healthy. Eyre, Myers and Romero have so far returned to games and Park should return this weekend. Provided that all four are able to pitch for the playoffs, that would leave just two roster spots open. Those two spots would likely be filled by two of Brad Lidge, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey.
Lidge's struggles this season have been well-documented and Manuel has showed enormous patience with Lidge and loyalty by letting him throw to the final batter in Wednesday's clincher against the Houston Astros. I imagine Manuel will keep Lidge on the postseason roster (and may even use him in high leverage or closing situations), though Lidge should be left off of the roster.
The Kendrick situation has been covered here. While Kendrick has been lights out in September, I don't think there's currently an opening for Kendrick on the playoff roster but he should travel with the team to serve as an emergency starter in case Martinez's neck prevents him from making a start or another pitcher is injured.
Durbin was an integral part of the 2008 World Series team but has struggled with inconsistency and injury this season, although he has posted a 1.98 ERA in September.
Walker has been a pleasant surprise this year but has struggled lately posting a 6.52 ERA in September. His recent collapse will probably cost him a spot in the postseason bullpen.
Condrey will probably get a spot on the team. He has pitched well all season and has not allowed an earned since his return from the disabled list on September 19.
I would probably choose Durbin and Condrey for the final two spots on the team due to their recent strong performances, playoff experience and ability to pitch multiple innings. However, if either of them falter in the last weekend they should be replaced by one of the other candidates.
Let's start a prediction pool. Entries are due by the final pitch of the regular season, reply to this thread on the blog on whether or not the following players will make the postseason roster:
-Eric Bruntlett
-Miguel Cairo
-Brett Myers
-Chan Ho Park
-Scott Eyre
-J.C. Romero
-Brad Lidge
-Kyle Kendrick
-Chad Durbin
-Tyler Walker
-Clay Condrey
-Sergio Escalona
-Jack Taschner
Read more!
Showing posts with label tyler walker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tyler walker. Show all posts
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Building a 25 man roster (without Lidge).
First I want to thank Nick for letting me post here. But considering I'm like 80% of the comments, it only seems fair.
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Who needs a closer?
As has been one of the recurring themes of the Phillies this season, just when Brad Lidge looked like he has finally gotten into a groove as closer, he blows another game as what happened last night in Pittsburgh. As good as Lidge says he feels, the Phillies cannot continue to go forward with a closer who blows over a quarter of his games.
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?
Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).
August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.
August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.
August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.
August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.
Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
Read more!
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