As you have definitely heard by now the Phillies have signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year, $125 million extension. That has prompted me to take a look at Ruben Amaro's history so far as general manager and grade each one of his moves that has had an impact on the Major League team.
November 20, 2008--Phillies trade OF Greg Golson to Rangers for OF John Mayberry, Jr. Grade: B+.
Amaro's first trade was a swap of failed prospects. Golson was released by the Rangers rather quickly whereas Mayberry can at least serve as a fifth outfielder in a pinch and is having a decent season at AAA so far.
December 10, 2008--Phillies trade C Jason Jaramillo to Pirates for C Ronny Paulino. Grade: C.
Both Jaramillo and Paulino exceeded expectations last season but Paulino did so for the Marlins (see below).
December 15, 2008--Phillies sign P Jamie Moyer to 2 year, $13 million contract. Grade: D+.
Moyer was not as good for the Phillies last year as they hoped but he quietly had a very good second half last season pitching in the rotation and bullpen and is very good for 2010's rotation depth. However, had Moyer not signed this contract (or signed a one-year deal as he should have), the Phillies would have possibly saved enough money to retain Cliff Lee for 2010.
December 16, 2008--Phillies sign OF Raul Ibanez to 3 year, $31.5 million contract. Grade: C.
At the beginning of last season this looked like this would have been one of the best signings in the history of baseball as Ibanez was the top outfielder in the 2009 All-Star Game. However, in the second half of the year Ibanez experienced a significant dropoff and his contract is backloaded so Ibanez is essentially on a 2 year, $23 million deal now. It would not surprise me if Ibanez is released after this season.
January 6, 2009--Phillies sign P Chan Ho Park to 1 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: A-.
Once the Phillies learned that it was not 2001 and Chan Ho Park is not a starting pitcher, Park emerged as the Phillies best and most consistent relief pitcher. It would have been nice to have the Phillies re-sign him for this season but he instead signed with the New York Yankees in the offseason.
January 16, 2009--Phillies sign IF Greg Dobbs to 2 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: C.
Dobbs was unable to replicate his fine 2008 season but being a pinch-hitter doesn't give you a big sample size anyway. Dobbs isn't great, but this contract doesn't kill the team.
January 18, 2009--Phillies sign P Cole Hamels to 3 year, $20.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Even though Hamels hasn't been the quite the pitcher he was during his 2008 breakout season, this is still a nice affordable contract for a young pitcher. Would've been nice to see the Phillies buyout (or have team options) for a couple of Hamels's free agent years though.
January 20, 2009--Phillies sign P Ryan Madson to 3 year, $12 million contract. Grade: B.
With this deal, the Phillies bought out his final arbitration year and two of his free agent years. Madson has had trouble closing games but he is still a very good relief pitcher.
January 22, 2009--Phillies sign OF Jayson Werth to 2 year, $10 million contract. Grade: B-.
The Phillies did very good for themselves signing Werth cheaply before his 2009 breakout season. However, the Phillies missed a huge opprotunity to sign Werth to a longer-term, below-market contract and as a result Werth will probably be wearing a different uniform next season.
February 8, 2009--Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 3 year, $54 million contract. Grade: C-.
This contract was about fair market value for Howard's arbitration years but it would've been nice to see the Phillies get a slightly below market value for this deal as a trade off for Howard's job security.
March 27, 2009--Phillies trade C Ronny Paulino to Giants for P Jack Taschner. Grade: D.
In theory this trade made a lot of sense for the Phillies as they already had two catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste) and they needed another left-handed pitcher while J.C. Romero served his 50 game suspension. As much as I liked Taschner, he was ineffective and off of them team by July (as was Coste) while Paulino was flipped to the Marlins had a nice season in a part-time role.
July 15, 2009-Phillies sign P Pedro Martinez to 1 year, <$1 million contract. Grade: A-.
It was a blast having Pedro on the team even if it was only for a couple of months and he did a great job down the stretch for the Phillies. The only thing preventing this from being an A grade was a relatively lackluster World Series performance.
July 30, 2009-Phillies trade P Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, IF Jason Donald and P Jason Knapp to Indians for P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco. Grade: A.
Its hard not to like this trade for the Phillies as Cliff Lee led the pitching staff throughout their playoff run and was completely dominant in the playoffs and World Series. To make matters even better for the Phillies, Carrasco and Marson have been awful with the Indians and Donald and Knapp have yet to make the majors.
December 1, 2009-Phillies sign C Brian Schneider to 2 year, $2.75 million contract. Grade: C.
This contract is pretty big for a backup catcher but Schneider is a border line starter and if Ruiz is out for an extended period of time, the Phillies may be grateful to have Schneider.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign IF Juan Castro to 1 year, $750,000 contract. Grade: B-.
He's not Eric Bruntlett.
December 3, 2009-Phillies sign 3B Placido Polanco to 3 year, $18 million contract. Grade: B.
Sure this contract was probably too long but I've always been a big Polanco fan and so far he has been great and the contract isn't a killer on the payroll.
December 15, 2009-Phillies sign IF Ross Gload to 2 year, $2.6 million contract. Grade: D-.
This signing was completely unnecessary as the Phillies are already have a (slightly) better version of Gload in Greg Dobbs and one Greg Dobbs is enough for a team.
December 16, 2009-Phillies trade P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis D'Arnaud to Blue Jays for P Roy Halladay and trade P Cliff Lee to Mariners for P Philippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies and P J.C. Ramirez. Grade: C+.
Obviously, the jury is still out on this trade but so far the trade has favored the Phillies as Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in the National League and Cliff Lee has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners. The Phillies gave up better prospects to the Blue Jays than they received from the Indians but the Phillies were also able to sign Halladay to a (slightly) below market extension.
January 5, 2010-Phillies sign P Danys Baez to 2 year, $5.25 million contract. Grade: D-.
Baez was nearly cut by the Baltimore Orioles last year, there's no reason he should be signing a 2 year contract let alone one for over $5 million. The early returns on Baez have been less than stellar.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign P Joe Blanton to 3 year, $24 million contract. Grade: B.
Blanton is a good innings-eater and the Phillies have him signed to a reasonable contract. Blanton should be worth the money.
January 21, 2010-Phillies sign CF Shane Victorino to 3 year, $22 million contract. Grade: C.
If Victorino has similar season to his last two seasons, this will be a decent contract but Victorino's already showing signs of concerns with declining defense and speed.
January 24, 2010-Phillies sign C Carlos Ruiz to 3 year, $8.85 million contract. Grade: A-.
Ruiz certainly won't be confusing anyone with Johnny Bench but he is an above-average catcher signed for three years in his prime very inexpensively. He will definitely be worth this contract.
January 28, 2010-Phillies sign P Jose Contreras to 1 year, $1.5 million contract. Grade: B+.
Contreras had a nice run in the bullpen last September for the Colorado Rockies and that run so far has continued with the Phillies. He is a good replacement for Chan Ho Park.
April 26, 2010-Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 5 year, $125 million contract. Grade: F.
This signing was completely pointless and has the potential to be up there with Barry Zito, Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano as one of the worst contracts in baseball. I am a big Howard fan and certainly wish him the best of luck, but this contract won't even kick in until the 2012 season when Howard will be 32 and in the probable beginning of his decline. In the best case scenario, this contract will be like Miguel Cabrera or Carlos Lee's contract where he will probably be paid close to market value but is so large that it will be impossible to trade Howard if the Phillies need the payroll flexibility. Furthermore, the Phillies did not get any sort of discount with this deal making it even more toxic for the team.
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Showing posts with label shane victorino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shane victorino. Show all posts
Monday, April 26, 2010
Thursday, December 3, 2009
The top of the Lineup
It is being reported that the Phillies are close to signing free agent Placido Polanco to a three-year contract to play third base. The signing would give the Phillies three players (Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino) who could hit in the first two spots of the lineup. Therefore, the Phillies will need to move one of the three down in the lineup, most likely to the 7th spot.
Looking at the three players, it is obvious that one player definitely belongs at the top of the lineup:
Player #1: .292/.355/.446, 24 HR, 61/80 SB
Player #2: .295/.340/.407, 18 HR, 14/17 SB
Player #3: .262/.320/.429, 32 HR, 78/89 SB
Player #1 has been the best hitter of the three and the highest on-base percentage. Along with that, he is also a good baserunner having stolen sixty-one bases in the past two years and has only been thrown out nineteen times. He belongs at the top of the lineup.
Player #2 has the fewest stolen bases of the group but does have a higher on-base percentage than Player #3 which is a key to hitting at the top of the lineup.
The identities of these players are: 1) Victorino 2) Polanco 3) Rollins.
The Phillies should resist all temptations to move Victorino down in the lineup as he is much better suited as a leadoff hitter. It would make the most sense for the Phillies to move Rollins down in the lineup as he has more power than Polanco and he could be used to drive in runs. Polanco's superior on base percentage would allow him to get on base for the Phillies' offensive core to drive him in. An ideal Phillies' lineup for 2010 would look as follows:
CF Victorino
3B Polanco
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
SS Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz Read more!
Looking at the three players, it is obvious that one player definitely belongs at the top of the lineup:
Player #1: .292/.355/.446, 24 HR, 61/80 SB
Player #2: .295/.340/.407, 18 HR, 14/17 SB
Player #3: .262/.320/.429, 32 HR, 78/89 SB
Player #1 has been the best hitter of the three and the highest on-base percentage. Along with that, he is also a good baserunner having stolen sixty-one bases in the past two years and has only been thrown out nineteen times. He belongs at the top of the lineup.
Player #2 has the fewest stolen bases of the group but does have a higher on-base percentage than Player #3 which is a key to hitting at the top of the lineup.
The identities of these players are: 1) Victorino 2) Polanco 3) Rollins.
The Phillies should resist all temptations to move Victorino down in the lineup as he is much better suited as a leadoff hitter. It would make the most sense for the Phillies to move Rollins down in the lineup as he has more power than Polanco and he could be used to drive in runs. Polanco's superior on base percentage would allow him to get on base for the Phillies' offensive core to drive him in. An ideal Phillies' lineup for 2010 would look as follows:
CF Victorino
3B Polanco
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
SS Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz Read more!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
World Series Preview
As you know, winning the World Series last year was fun. If the Phillies win this year, it will be even better. Once again, the Phillies are underdogs in the World Series but they are even less favored to win this year as they are being opposed by the 103-win New York Yankees. In the regular season, the Phillies went just 6-12 against the American League but went 2-1 against the Yankees and were a Brad Lidge blown save away from achieving a sweep in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
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