Grading Ruben Amaro's moves

As you have definitely heard by now the Phillies have signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year, $125 million extension. That has prompted me to take a look at Ruben Amaro's history so far as general manager and grade each one of his moves that has had an impact on the Major League team.
November 20, 2008--Phillies trade OF Greg Golson to Rangers for OF John Mayberry, Jr. Grade: B+.

Amaro's first trade was a swap of failed prospects. Golson was released by the Rangers rather quickly whereas Mayberry can at least serve as a fifth outfielder in a pinch and is having a decent season at AAA so far.

December 10, 2008--Phillies trade C Jason Jaramillo to Pirates for C Ronny Paulino. Grade: C.

Both Jaramillo and Paulino exceeded expectations last season but Paulino did so for the Marlins (see below).

December 15, 2008--Phillies sign P Jamie Moyer to 2 year, $13 million contract. Grade: D+.

Moyer was not as good for the Phillies last year as they hoped but he quietly had a very good second half last season pitching in the rotation and bullpen and is very good for 2010's rotation depth. However, had Moyer not signed this contract (or signed a one-year deal as he should have), the Phillies would have possibly saved enough money to retain Cliff Lee for 2010.

December 16, 2008--Phillies sign OF Raul Ibanez to 3 year, $31.5 million contract. Grade: C.

At the beginning of last season this looked like this would have been one of the best signings in the history of baseball as Ibanez was the top outfielder in the 2009 All-Star Game. However, in the second half of the year Ibanez experienced a significant dropoff and his contract is backloaded so Ibanez is essentially on a 2 year, $23 million deal now. It would not surprise me if Ibanez is released after this season.

January 6, 2009--Phillies sign P Chan Ho Park to 1 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: A-.

Once the Phillies learned that it was not 2001 and Chan Ho Park is not a starting pitcher, Park emerged as the Phillies best and most consistent relief pitcher. It would have been nice to have the Phillies re-sign him for this season but he instead signed with the New York Yankees in the offseason.

January 16, 2009--Phillies sign IF Greg Dobbs to 2 year, $2.5 million contract. Grade: C.

Dobbs was unable to replicate his fine 2008 season but being a pinch-hitter doesn't give you a big sample size anyway. Dobbs isn't great, but this contract doesn't kill the team.

January 18, 2009--Phillies sign P Cole Hamels to 3 year, $20.5 million contract. Grade: B+.

Even though Hamels hasn't been the quite the pitcher he was during his 2008 breakout season, this is still a nice affordable contract for a young pitcher. Would've been nice to see the Phillies buyout (or have team options) for a couple of Hamels's free agent years though.

January 20, 2009--Phillies sign P Ryan Madson to 3 year, $12 million contract. Grade: B.

With this deal, the Phillies bought out his final arbitration year and two of his free agent years. Madson has had trouble closing games but he is still a very good relief pitcher.

January 22, 2009--Phillies sign OF Jayson Werth to 2 year, $10 million contract. Grade: B-.

The Phillies did very good for themselves signing Werth cheaply before his 2009 breakout season. However, the Phillies missed a huge opprotunity to sign Werth to a longer-term, below-market contract and as a result Werth will probably be wearing a different uniform next season.

February 8, 2009--Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 3 year, $54 million contract. Grade: C-.

This contract was about fair market value for Howard's arbitration years but it would've been nice to see the Phillies get a slightly below market value for this deal as a trade off for Howard's job security.

March 27, 2009--Phillies trade C Ronny Paulino to Giants for P Jack Taschner. Grade: D.

In theory this trade made a lot of sense for the Phillies as they already had two catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste) and they needed another left-handed pitcher while J.C. Romero served his 50 game suspension. As much as I liked Taschner, he was ineffective and off of them team by July (as was Coste) while Paulino was flipped to the Marlins had a nice season in a part-time role.

July 15, 2009-Phillies sign P Pedro Martinez to 1 year, <$1 million contract. Grade: A-.

It was a blast having Pedro on the team even if it was only for a couple of months and he did a great job down the stretch for the Phillies. The only thing preventing this from being an A grade was a relatively lackluster World Series performance.

July 30, 2009-Phillies trade P Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, IF Jason Donald and P Jason Knapp to Indians for P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco. Grade: A.

Its hard not to like this trade for the Phillies as Cliff Lee led the pitching staff throughout their playoff run and was completely dominant in the playoffs and World Series. To make matters even better for the Phillies, Carrasco and Marson have been awful with the Indians and Donald and Knapp have yet to make the majors.

December 1, 2009-Phillies sign C Brian Schneider to 2 year, $2.75 million contract. Grade: C.

This contract is pretty big for a backup catcher but Schneider is a border line starter and if Ruiz is out for an extended period of time, the Phillies may be grateful to have Schneider.

December 3, 2009-Phillies sign IF Juan Castro to 1 year, $750,000 contract. Grade: B-.

He's not Eric Bruntlett.

December 3, 2009-Phillies sign 3B Placido Polanco to 3 year, $18 million contract. Grade: B.

Sure this contract was probably too long but I've always been a big Polanco fan and so far he has been great and the contract isn't a killer on the payroll.

December 15, 2009-Phillies sign IF Ross Gload to 2 year, $2.6 million contract. Grade: D-.

This signing was completely unnecessary as the Phillies are already have a (slightly) better version of Gload in Greg Dobbs and one Greg Dobbs is enough for a team.

December 16, 2009-Phillies trade P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis D'Arnaud to Blue Jays for P Roy Halladay and trade P Cliff Lee to Mariners for P Philippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies and P J.C. Ramirez. Grade: C+.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this trade but so far the trade has favored the Phillies as Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in the National League and Cliff Lee has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners. The Phillies gave up better prospects to the Blue Jays than they received from the Indians but the Phillies were also able to sign Halladay to a (slightly) below market extension.

January 5, 2010-Phillies sign P Danys Baez to 2 year, $5.25 million contract. Grade: D-.

Baez was nearly cut by the Baltimore Orioles last year, there's no reason he should be signing a 2 year contract let alone one for over $5 million. The early returns on Baez have been less than stellar.

January 21, 2010-Phillies sign P Joe Blanton to 3 year, $24 million contract. Grade: B.

Blanton is a good innings-eater and the Phillies have him signed to a reasonable contract. Blanton should be worth the money.

January 21, 2010-Phillies sign CF Shane Victorino to 3 year, $22 million contract. Grade: C.

If Victorino has similar season to his last two seasons, this will be a decent contract but Victorino's already showing signs of concerns with declining defense and speed.

January 24, 2010-Phillies sign C Carlos Ruiz to 3 year, $8.85 million contract. Grade: A-.

Ruiz certainly won't be confusing anyone with Johnny Bench but he is an above-average catcher signed for three years in his prime very inexpensively. He will definitely be worth this contract.

January 28, 2010-Phillies sign P Jose Contreras to 1 year, $1.5 million contract. Grade: B+.

Contreras had a nice run in the bullpen last September for the Colorado Rockies and that run so far has continued with the Phillies. He is a good replacement for Chan Ho Park.

April 26, 2010-Phillies sign 1B Ryan Howard to 5 year, $125 million contract. Grade: F.

This signing was completely pointless and has the potential to be up there with Barry Zito, Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano as one of the worst contracts in baseball. I am a big Howard fan and certainly wish him the best of luck, but this contract won't even kick in until the 2012 season when Howard will be 32 and in the probable beginning of his decline. In the best case scenario, this contract will be like Miguel Cabrera or Carlos Lee's contract where he will probably be paid close to market value but is so large that it will be impossible to trade Howard if the Phillies need the payroll flexibility. Furthermore, the Phillies did not get any sort of discount with this deal making it even more toxic for the team.





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Could the Phillies use a lineup shuffle?

Here is a challenge for you. I am going to show you a lineup full of pure statistics. Your objective is to tell me which batter looks out of place (and for the sake of this game, let's ignore the fact that the leadoff hitter has a .266 OBP):

Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)

So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!

Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.

Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:

CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)

However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:

SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz

Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.

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Raul's struggles are nothing new

Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui.

Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui. Ibanez's summer swoon is nothing new to Phillies' left fielders as Pat Burrell underwent a similar dropoff from a hot start last season. Burrell's 2008 season is quite similar although slightly worse than Ibanez's 2009 season:

FIRST HALF
Pat Burrell (2008) .275/.404/.575 with 23 HR
Raul Ibanez (2009) .309/.367/.649 with 22 HR (Ibanez was injured from June 17 through the All-Star Break)

SECOND HALF
Pat Burrell .215/.313/.413 with 10 HR
Raul Ibanez .233/.321/.445 with 8 HR

PLAYOFFS

Pat Burrell .227/.346/.455 with 3 HR

Furthermore, Burrell's September was horrendus as he put up a line of .205/.322/.397 with just three home runs. However, Burrell was able to translate a poor September into a respectable showing in the postseason, keyed by the double in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the World Series which proved to be a game-winner. This September in just seven games, Ibanez is batting .304/.360/.696 with three home runs already. So far, Ibanez's 2009 season has tracked slightly above Burrell's 2008 season. If this trend continues, Ibanez should be in great shape for the Phillies' postseason.
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