The top of the Lineup

It is being reported that the Phillies are close to signing free agent Placido Polanco to a three-year contract to play third base. The signing would give the Phillies three players (Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino) who could hit in the first two spots of the lineup. Therefore, the Phillies will need to move one of the three down in the lineup, most likely to the 7th spot.
Looking at the three players, it is obvious that one player definitely belongs at the top of the lineup:

Player #1: .292/.355/.446, 24 HR, 61/80 SB
Player #2: .295/.340/.407, 18 HR, 14/17 SB
Player #3: .262/.320/.429, 32 HR, 78/89 SB

Player #1 has been the best hitter of the three and the highest on-base percentage. Along with that, he is also a good baserunner having stolen sixty-one bases in the past two years and has only been thrown out nineteen times. He belongs at the top of the lineup.

Player #2 has the fewest stolen bases of the group but does have a higher on-base percentage than Player #3 which is a key to hitting at the top of the lineup.

The identities of these players are: 1) Victorino 2) Polanco 3) Rollins.

The Phillies should resist all temptations to move Victorino down in the lineup as he is much better suited as a leadoff hitter. It would make the most sense for the Phillies to move Rollins down in the lineup as he has more power than Polanco and he could be used to drive in runs. Polanco's superior on base percentage would allow him to get on base for the Phillies' offensive core to drive him in. An ideal Phillies' lineup for 2010 would look as follows:

CF Victorino
3B Polanco
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
SS Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz Read more!

Could the Phillies use a lineup shuffle?

Here is a challenge for you. I am going to show you a lineup full of pure statistics. Your objective is to tell me which batter looks out of place (and for the sake of this game, let's ignore the fact that the leadoff hitter has a .266 OBP):

Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)

So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!

Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.

Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:

CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)

However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:

SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz

Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.

Read more!