If you are like me, you are probably sick of hearing the names Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney. We still have the entire offseason of discussing these players, so let's take a diversion and look at five trades and free agent signings that probably won't happen but could make sense for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Braves trade SP Derek Lowe to Phillies for RP Brad Lidge
Why it could work: Brad Lidge is a player who needs a change of scenery every few years. He struggled with the Houston Astros prior to his trade to the Phillies so another trade could help Lidge become a quality closer again. The Braves' top two relievers from 2009, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, are both free agents. Lowe struggled in his first year with the Braves but as a sinker ball pitcher, could see a rebound with the Phillies' excellent infield defense. The Braves have six starting pitchers under contract next year and are expected to trade Lowe or Javier Vazquez.
Potential problems: Both players have large contracts, with Lidge owed $36 million over the next three seasons and Lowe owed $45 million for the next three seasons. The Braves may not have confidence in Lidge to return to elite status and the Phillies may be reluctant to have a 37-year-old pitcher with declining numbers for the next three years. The Phillies have a full rotation already, although there is room to improve.
Nationals trade 3B Ryan Zimmerman to Phillies for SP J.A. Happ, SP Jamie Moyer, SP Antonio Bastardo, OF Michael Taylor and cash
Why it could work: The Phillies need a third baseman (preferrably a defensive standout) and Zimmerman fits that description perfectly and is an offesnive juggernaut as well. Zimmerman is only 25 and under contract through 2014. The Phillies have the pitching depth to give up three starting pitchers while the Nationals have a huge need for pitching as they currently have only one Major League-caliber starter (John Lannan). The Nationals have expressed an interest in acquiring a veteran starter to mentor the young pitching and Moyer is a perfect fit for them. Happ could be the Nationals' ace for next season and it would make sense for the Phillies to trade him now. Bastardo and Taylor are Major League ready but there may not be room for them on the Phillies roster so they could be expendable.
Potential Problems: Zimmerman is the face of the Nationals' franchise and by far their best player so the Nationals would be very reluctant to trade him. Happ, Bastardo and Taylor are not yet arbitration-eligible but Moyer is owed $6.5 million for next year (while Zimmerman is only owed $5 million) so the Nationals may require the Phillies to eat some of Moyer's salary.
White Sox trade RP Bobby Jenks and cash to Phillies for 3B Pedro Feliz
Why it could work: The Phillies need another reliever and the White Sox need a third baseman. Jenks will get a small arbitration raise over his $5.6 million salary from next year and Feliz has a $5 million option for 2010.
Potential problems: This trade was plausible a couple of weeks ago but since then the White Sox have traded for Mark Teahen to play third base and the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz's option for 2010. This trade will not happen.
Phillies sign Brad Penny
Why it could work: Last season, Penny had success in the National League with the San Francisco Giants after a disastrous stint in the American League with the Boston Red Sox. However, the Phillies could look to use Penny in the bullpen. Throughout his career, Penny has much better numbers against hitters the first time through the lineup than the second time. The Phillies could shift Penny to a starter if there is a vacancy in the rotation. Penny is a highly emotional pitcher who can start or relieve similar to Brett Myers, who will not be returning to the Phillies next year. Penny may also be motivated to pitch for the Phillies to defeat his former team, the Florida Marlins.
Potential Problems: As a career starter, Penny may have trouble or may be reluctant to shift to the bullpen. Penny will probably have contract offers to be a starter from other teams that were similar to the 1 year, $5 million contract that Penny signed with the Red Sox this season. To sign Penny, the Phillies would need to beat that offer and the Phillies may not want to commit that much money to a reliever.
Phillies sign Eric Hinske
Why it could work: With Matt Stairs unlikely to return for next season, the Phillies could use a left-handed hitting reserve outfielder and Hinske would fit in perfectly. He would also be a defensive improvement over Stairs. Hinske should be affordable and could also fill in at third base in a pinch. Hinske has also played on the last three American League champion teams, winning World Series titles with the Red Sox in 2007 and the New York Yankees in 2009. Hinske also struck out to record the final out for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series.
Potential Problems: There doesn't seem to be any drawbacks here though Hinske may prefer the American League or will look for more playing time.
Read more!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Offseason Report
Yesterday, I looked a what the offseason would bring for the individual Phillies and today let's take a look at what lies ahead for the team.
As of today, the Phillies roster for 2010 is as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz*
C:
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pedro Feliz#
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett*
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF:
Others of note: John Mayberry
SP: Cliff Lee#
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Joe Blanton*
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jamie Moyer
RP:
RP: Tyler Walker*
RP: Clay Condrey*
RP: Chad Durbin
RP: J.C. Romero
RP: Ryan Madson
RP: Brad Lidge
Others of note: Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, Jack Taschner
*=The player is arbitration-eligible
#=Club option
Let's take a look at each position opening:
BACKUP CATCHER
If Paul Bako chooses not to retire, the Phillies could easily bring him back. Should Bako retire, the Phillies do not have an internal replacement so they will have to look elsewhere. The Phillies could reunite with Chris Coste or Sal Fasano. Other cheap options for the backup catcher include Henry Blanco, Josh Bard, Jose Molina or Miguel Olivo.
THIRD BASE
The Phillies need to decide by Monday on whether or not they will pick up Pedro Feliz's $5 million option for next year. As covered here, the decision to exercise the option is a tough decision. Free agent options include Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins while possible trade targets include Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Casey Blake. If the Phillies feel they can get one of these players for a reasonable price, they should decline Feliz's option and make the deal, otherwise it would be wise to bring back Feliz.
UTILITY INFIELDER
The Phillies do have Eric Bruntlett under team control for another year but the Phillies would probably want to sign someone more prolific offensively. While the top utility infielders such as Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez and Mark DeRosa may seek a starting role and be too expensive for the Phillies, they can sign a less costly option such as Rich Aurilia, Adam Kennedy or Craig Counsell. The Phillies could also opt to re-sign Miguel Cairo.
FIFTH OUTFIELDER
The Phillies could use a left-handed bat off of the bench to compliment Greg Dobbs and could use a fifth outfielder. The Phillies could choose to bring back Matt Stairs but may be reluctant to do so after his atrocious second half to the season. Other targets could include Eric Hinske, Randy Winn or Frank Catalanatto.
STARTING PITCHING
As expected, the Phillies exercised Cliff Lee's option today which gives the Phillies a five-man rotation for next year. However, there is still room for improvement in the rotation with Jamie Moyer coming off of an unproductive season and offseason surgery. To increase starting pitching depth, the Phillies could sign a pitcher coming off of injury such as Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard or Justin Duchscherer. Although the Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers, they could re-sign Pedro Martinez. The Phillies could also trade Happ in an attempt to sign a more veteran starter, such as Javier Vazquez, Roy Halladay or Bronson Arroyo.
BULLPEN
The biggest question mark in the bullpen is obviously the closer's role. Brad Lidge was untrustworthy in 2009 and Ryan Madson struggled when asked to close. The Phillies could use another good reliever and Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks could be available via trade while intriguing free agent options include J.J. Putz, Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins. The Phillies could also choose to bring back Chan Ho Park and/or Tyler Walker. Additionally, the club needs a left-handed reliever to complement J.C. Romero but may stay internal for the position (Scott Eyre (if he returns), Sergio Escalona or Antonio Bastardo).
Read more!
As of today, the Phillies roster for 2010 is as follows:
C: Carlos Ruiz*
C:
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pedro Feliz#
IF: Greg Dobbs
IF: Eric Bruntlett*
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ben Francisco
OF:
Others of note: John Mayberry
SP: Cliff Lee#
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Joe Blanton*
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jamie Moyer
RP:
RP: Tyler Walker*
RP: Clay Condrey*
RP: Chad Durbin
RP: J.C. Romero
RP: Ryan Madson
RP: Brad Lidge
Others of note: Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, Jack Taschner
*=The player is arbitration-eligible
#=Club option
Let's take a look at each position opening:
BACKUP CATCHER
If Paul Bako chooses not to retire, the Phillies could easily bring him back. Should Bako retire, the Phillies do not have an internal replacement so they will have to look elsewhere. The Phillies could reunite with Chris Coste or Sal Fasano. Other cheap options for the backup catcher include Henry Blanco, Josh Bard, Jose Molina or Miguel Olivo.
THIRD BASE
The Phillies need to decide by Monday on whether or not they will pick up Pedro Feliz's $5 million option for next year. As covered here, the decision to exercise the option is a tough decision. Free agent options include Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins while possible trade targets include Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Casey Blake. If the Phillies feel they can get one of these players for a reasonable price, they should decline Feliz's option and make the deal, otherwise it would be wise to bring back Feliz.
UTILITY INFIELDER
The Phillies do have Eric Bruntlett under team control for another year but the Phillies would probably want to sign someone more prolific offensively. While the top utility infielders such as Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez and Mark DeRosa may seek a starting role and be too expensive for the Phillies, they can sign a less costly option such as Rich Aurilia, Adam Kennedy or Craig Counsell. The Phillies could also opt to re-sign Miguel Cairo.
FIFTH OUTFIELDER
The Phillies could use a left-handed bat off of the bench to compliment Greg Dobbs and could use a fifth outfielder. The Phillies could choose to bring back Matt Stairs but may be reluctant to do so after his atrocious second half to the season. Other targets could include Eric Hinske, Randy Winn or Frank Catalanatto.
STARTING PITCHING
As expected, the Phillies exercised Cliff Lee's option today which gives the Phillies a five-man rotation for next year. However, there is still room for improvement in the rotation with Jamie Moyer coming off of an unproductive season and offseason surgery. To increase starting pitching depth, the Phillies could sign a pitcher coming off of injury such as Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard or Justin Duchscherer. Although the Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers, they could re-sign Pedro Martinez. The Phillies could also trade Happ in an attempt to sign a more veteran starter, such as Javier Vazquez, Roy Halladay or Bronson Arroyo.
BULLPEN
The biggest question mark in the bullpen is obviously the closer's role. Brad Lidge was untrustworthy in 2009 and Ryan Madson struggled when asked to close. The Phillies could use another good reliever and Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks could be available via trade while intriguing free agent options include J.J. Putz, Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins. The Phillies could also choose to bring back Chan Ho Park and/or Tyler Walker. Additionally, the club needs a left-handed reliever to complement J.C. Romero but may stay internal for the position (Scott Eyre (if he returns), Sergio Escalona or Antonio Bastardo).
Read more!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Year End Wrap-Up
Well, that was tough to take. It was very evident that the Philadelphia Phillies did not play their best baseball in the World Series while the New York Yankees looked pretty damn good. Despite all of the attention that Brad Lidge and his perfect season received last year, this series showed how easy it is to take the end of a game for granted when a game is virtually over after seven or eight innings. Anyway, let's give out some season end awards for the Phillies and take a quick look at each individual Phillie's season and what could be in store for the future.
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
Read more!
PHILLIES' ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: J.A. Happ
There's no doubt about this award as Happ is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year as well. The 26-year-old left-hander's 2.93 ERA ranked eighth in the National League to go along with an impressive won-loss record of 12-4. No other rookie on the Phillies had close to this much of an impact on the team.
STEVE CARLTON AWARD: Joe Blanton
Blanton's 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA may not be as good as Happ's numbers but Blanton wins the Steve Carlton Award because of the stretch of games from May 26th through September 5th. During this time period, Blanton was by far the team's most consistent starter. In these 18 appearances, Blanton failed to record a quality start only once, went at least five innings in every outing and logged a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record. Blanton's ability to pitch lots of quality innings in this time period decreased the Phillies' reliance on a much maligned bullpen and minimized the number of starts needed from struggling starters such as Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Jamie Moyer.
MOST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Chase Utley
A number of players could have won this award, including, but Utley has had the best all-around season. His .282 batting average and 31 home runs may not seem that impressive compared to the rest of the team, but Utley led the team with a .397 on-base percentage, which was especially important as he hit in front of mashers Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in the lineup. This contributed to Utley's team leading 112 runs, which was also the third best total in the National League. An argument for Shane Victorino to win this award could be based on his speed but Utley only stole two fewer bases than Victorino this year and, while Victorino was caught stealing eight times, Utley was not even caught once. Lastly, not only does Utley play a tough defensive position, he was the best fielder on the team, according to Fangraphs.
ADAM EATON AWARD: Brad Lidge
This is another very easy award to give as the numbers speak for themselves. Compare Lidge's excellent 2008 season to his, well not so excellent, 2009 season:
2008-72 games, 69 1/3 innings, 50 H (6.5/9 inn), 1.23 WHIP, 17 R (15 ER), 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 92 K, 42/42 SV
2009-67 games, 58 2/3 innings, 72 H (11.0/9 inn), 1.81 WHIP 51 R (47 ER), 0-8, 7.21 ERA, 61 K, 31/42 SV
LEAST VALUABLE PHILLIE: Lidge
See the commentary for the Adam Eaton award.
Lastly, I'll end with a blurb for each of the member of the Phillies' 40-man roster, reflecting on their 2009 season and what is in store for 2010:
Paul Bako-I will probably never fully warm up to you because you replaced Chris Coste as backup catcher but I don't really have anything against you personally. If you decide to play another season, I have no problem with you trying to earn the backup catcher's spot again.
Antonio Bastardo-You showed some impressive flashes this season. You still need to improve your pitching if you want to be a Major League starter. Hopefully, you will be back with the Phillies soon.
Joe Blanton-You were the Phillies' most consistent pitcher this year and I look forward to seeing what you are able to do in your contract year in 2010.
Eric Bruntlett-Even the 25th man on the roster should be able to hit a little bit. You're due a raise in arbitration from your $800,000 salary and I don't think you'll be worth it and should be non-tendered. Thanks for the unassisted triple play, Eric.
Miguel Cairo-I suppose the quality of your play is slightly above Bruntlett's. If you're willing to accept another 1 year, $500,000 contract, I'd welcome you back, if not, we can find your level of (lack of) production elsewhere.
Drew Carpenter-I haven't seen much promise from you yet and I doubt that you have a future in the Major Leagues. I guess you're okay as the guy who gets called up from AAA for a few days a year when the bullpen is worn out or the Phillies need a spot starter.
Clay Condrey-You got shoved out of the way during the postseason but I like what you've been able to do for the team the past two years and hope you can continue your strong play in 2010.
Greg Dobbs-2009 was a disappointment but I'm still happy with you as a left-handed option off of the bench. If the Phillies exercise Feliz's option, I'd be comfortable giving you some more starts next season.
Chad Durbin-The first half of 2008 was probably a fluke, but I think you're still good enough to keep a spot on the team for next year, if you are able to lower your walk rate as 6.1 walks per nine innings is unacceptable.
Sergio Escalona-I like your enthusiasm and think that you'll be a decent relief pitcher someday. You deserve a shot at making the Major League roster next year, especially if Scott Eyre retires.
Scott Eyre-If you choose to come back next year, I would welcome you back with open arms. You've done a tremendous job filling in as the top left-handed option in the bullpen with J.C. Romero suspended and injured for much of the season. You also are also a great clubhouse presence.
Pedro Feliz-Pete Happy, you represent one of the most difficult decisions for the Phillies this offseason. I've already covered your option for next year and I think it's going to be a close call as your offensive and defensive skills are on the decline. If the Phillies can't get anyone better in the offseason, then you should be back next year, otherwise, good luck in your hunt to land a starting job for next season, Pedro.
Ben Francisco-Well, my gut feeling that you would have a big postseason did not come to fruition, but I still think you are a very good fourth outfielder and will play an important role on the 2010 squad.
Cole Hamels-I was comparing your peripheral statistics the other day between 2008 and 2009 and noticed that they were eerily similar. You probably won't post a 3.09 ERA again but I suspect that you will return to ace form again. A lot of good, young pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy) have had off years in their age 25 season and I suspect that you are no different.
J.A. Happ-As I stated earlier, you've had a fantastic season, possibly worthy of an NL Rookie of the Year award. I think the Phillies should reward you for your great season with a trade. Your peripheral numbers (such as a .270 BABIP and a whopping 85.2% of runners leyour great year and affordability, the Phillies should look to see what they can get for you in the trade market.
Paul Hoover-You aren't good enough to be on a Major League team but I don't think I've ever seen somebody not on the roster get so excited over playoff wins. Congratulations on having the last hit (a walkoff RBI single) of the Phillies' 2009 regular season.
Ryan Howard-You had another good year and I'm looking forward to seeing another 40+ home run, 130+ RBI season in 2010. However, when your contract is up after the 2012 season, I hope the Phillies let you move on rather than overpay to keep an aging slugger.
Raul Ibanez-That was certainly a great first season in Philadelphia, Rauuuuuul! Hopefully, 2010 and 2011 can be just as successful.
Kyle Kendrick-After the 2008 season I thought you were a lost cause but you didn't look too bad in 2009. Keep working on your pitches and I think you at least deserve a shot at being the #5 pitcher on the 2010 team.
Cliff Lee-I have no reason to believe that you can't be win the NL Cy Young Award in 2010. The Phillies have talked about giving you a contract extension this offseason but I don't think that's necessary given how cheap your option ($9 million) is for next year.
Brad Lidge-Well, this year was a disaster. Perhaps you are the type of player who just needs a change of scenery every couple of years (you experience similar trouble near the end of your Houston Astros career). Perhaps the Phillies will be able to match up with another team and engage in a "bad contract swap" and you will get a third chance to prove yourself.
Ryan Madson-You had another fine season although you did struggle at times in save opportunities in the ninth inning. I think you deserve an extended look in the ninth inning to see if you can be next year's "closer" (barring a comeback season by Lidge or the acquisition of another closer).
Pedro Martinez-Last night's game was certainly not the way you wanted to end your Hall of Fame career. It was fun while it lasted but I'm not confident you will be able to perform at a high level for an entire season. Don't call us, we'll call you if we need your services at some point in 2010.
John Mayberry-I wasn't very impressed by your call-up when you filled in for the injured Ibanez. You appear to be a AAAA-level player. Hopefully, you can improve your hitting so you can succeed as a pinch hitter or as a fourth outfielder somewhere.
Jamie Moyer-It was a somewhat rough season for you but I do think you are still a good enough pitcher and you deserve a chance to be the #5 starter next year. Best of luck recovering from your offseason surgery.
Brett Myers-I've gotten used to your bizarre and often childish behavior (as demonstrated here, here, here and here), but you may be someone else's problem next year as you are a free agent. Whether or not you are back in Philadelphia may depend if you attempt to be a starter or a reliever next year. Despite your tumultuous tenure in Philadelphia, you have expressed an interest in returning and you do seem to fit in very well with your teammates.
Drew Naylor-You will be 24 next season and have not yet made it above single-A ball. It might be time to start thinking about life after baseball.
Chan Ho Park-I thought it was foolish to put you in the starting rotation, but after you were sent to the bullpen you emerged as the team's best reliever. You're a free agent this offseason, and I certainly wouldn't have a problem bringing you back in 2010.
Steven Register-Who?
Jimmy Rollins-You've experienced your third straight season of decline and at your age it may not be the last season of the slide. While it may be wise to trade you while you still have some val ue, I don't think it would be a good move to get rid of the team's leader who plays an important position defensively.
J.C. Romero-Injuries and a suspension made this a frustrating season for you but you still have a lot of talent and I look forward to watching you have a great season in 2010.
Carlos Ruiz-You're not going to confuse anyone with Ivan Rodriguez but you do a fine job for a #8 hitter and the pitchers and management seem to like the way you call games.
Matt Stairs-Your home run in the 2008 National League Championship Series will not be forgotten but a second-half of 2009 line of .070/.245/.186 makes me think that your career might be over. If you try to hang around for another year, I certainly wish you luck but I hope it is with a team outside of the Phillies.
Jack Taschner-Happy Jack, you are a class act but a borderline Major League pitcher. I hope you get the chance to make a Major League team next year either in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Andy Tracy-As long as you want to continue living the Minor League lifestyle for five months of the year (and the Major League lifestyle for one with a September call-up), I'm fine with it.
Chase Utley-You are going to be one of the best players in baseball history never to win an MVP award. Keep up your level of production for a few more years, and we will be talking about you as a Hall of Fame second baseman.
Shane Victorino-You had another great year Shane, keep it up for 2010 and beyond!
Tyler Walker-You were a pleasant surprise for the bullpen and depending on what happens with Myers, Park and Lidge there might be room for you to get another crack at making the team in 2010.
Mike Zagurski-Injuries have derailed your career but hopefully you will get another chance at making the Major League roster soon after having a decent year at AA Reading.
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Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Previewing Games 6 and 7
The Phillies certainly made it interesting last night, didn't they? But a win is a win, and the Phillies will be returning to Yankee Stadium for one or two more World Series games, so let's preview them!
Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
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Game 6 will be played Wednesday night and will feature Pedro Martinez pitching for the Phillies against Andy Pettitte for the Yankees. Martinez started Game 2 of the World Series in Yankee Stadium, allowing three runs in six innings while taking the loss. In that game, Martinez struck out eight batters while walking only two and he surrendered solo home runs to Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui. Pettitte will be making the start on three days' rest. In his career, Pettitte has fifteen career starts on three days rest, and has a 4-6 record with a 4.15 ERA in those games but has not started on short rest since 2003 when he was a member of the Houston Astros. Pettitte surrendered four runs in six innings in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing a pair of home runs to Jayson Werth.
If the Phillies win Game 6, they will force a Game 7 to be played in Yankee Stadium on Thrusday night. The probable pitching matchup will feature Cole Hamels for the Phillies against CC Sabathia for the Yankees. Hamels has been much maligned for his performance this postseason and for comments he made after Game 3 suggesting that he was ready for the season to end. In spite of this, Hamels is still the correct choice to start in this game. As stated before, having a left-hander pitch in Yankee Stadium is a huge advantage. Additionally, Hamels was the World Series MVP last year and much of his struggles this year can be attributed to bad luck. If Hamels struggles, left-handed starters Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ will be available out of the bullpen. Sabathia will be making his second consecutive World Series start on three days' rest but he has pitched well on short rest in his career. In the World Series, Sabathia is a 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA.
My predictions:
Game 6: Werth goes deep again and sends Pettitte out of the game in the fifth inning. Martinez shines for seven strong innings and the bullpen barely hangs on. Phillies 5, Yankees 3
Game 7: Hamels cruises through the first five innings and starts running into trouble in the 6th and 7th inning. Lee comes out of the bullpen and records key outs. The Phillies scrape together a few runs off of Sabathia who leaves in the sixth inning.
Phillies 5, Yankees 4
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Monday, November 2, 2009
Could the Phillies use a lineup shuffle?
Here is a challenge for you. I am going to show you a lineup full of pure statistics. Your objective is to tell me which batter looks out of place (and for the sake of this game, let's ignore the fact that the leadoff hitter has a .266 OBP):
Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)
So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!
Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.
Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:
CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)
However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz
Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.
Read more!
Batter 1: .230/.266/.425, 24 HR (Switch)
Batter 2: .314/.385/.459, 7 HR (Switch)
Batter 3: .288/.417/.545, 35 HR (Left)
Batter 4: .207/.298/.356, 14 HR (Left)
Batter 5: .302/.436/.644, 60 HR (Right)
Batter 6: .285/.359/.639, 54 HR (Left)
Batter 7: .247/.351/.392, 12 HR (Right)
Batter 8: .208/.278/.385, 28 HR (Right)
Batter 9: .293/.370/.524, 29 HR (Right)
So, did you figure out what looks wrong here? If you guessed the problem was the fact that the cleanup hitter has a .356 slugging percentage and the two batters hitting behind him have combined for one hundred more home runs than him, then you would be correct!
Who are the people that the numbers represent? They are the Phillies' probable starting lineup for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) of the World Series and those numbers are the lineup's numbers against left-handed pitching this year (I based the home run numbers on what a 600 at-bat season against left-handed pitching would look like). Who is the player batting fourth with numbers against lefties similar to Eric Bruntlett's against lefties (.229/.315/.333, 0 HR)? Ryan Howard.
Should the series advance back to New York, the Phillies' will face two left-handed starting pitchers in Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia in Game 6 and Game 7, respectively. Charlie Manuel should consider moving Howard down in the batting order and move Jayson Werth (5th hitter) and Raul Ibanez (6th hitter) up in the lineup. An ideal lineup could look something like this:
CF Shane Victorino (Batter 2)
2B Chase Utley (Batter 3)
RF Werth (Batter 5)
DH Ibanez (Batter 6)
C Carlos Ruiz (Batter 9)
SS Jimmy Rollins (Batter 1)
1B Howard (Batter 4)
LF Ben Francisco (Batter 7)
3B Pedro Feliz (Batter 8)
However, Charlie Manuel will be reluctant to move so many of his hitters around so an alternative lineup that moves Howard down could look something like this:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
1B Howard
LF Francisco
3B Feliz
C Ruiz
Manuel should strongly consider adopting this strategy as a bruised ego is a small price to pay for a World Series championship.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
World Series Preview
As you know, winning the World Series last year was fun. If the Phillies win this year, it will be even better. Once again, the Phillies are underdogs in the World Series but they are even less favored to win this year as they are being opposed by the 103-win New York Yankees. In the regular season, the Phillies went just 6-12 against the American League but went 2-1 against the Yankees and were a Brad Lidge blown save away from achieving a sweep in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
The Yankees' lineup is very deep, with every starter hitting at least 1 home runs this season and seven different players have hit at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez bat right-handed while Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon bat left-handed and Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera are switch-hitters. The newly constructed Yankee Stadium plays an extreme home run park for left-handed batters and as a result Cano, Damon and Cabrera have set or tied career highs in home runs this year. So far in the playoffs, the Yankees have employed a three-man starting pitching staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and, of course, their bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera.
Game 1 of the series will feature Cliff Lee pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Sabathia. Lee and Sabathia have won the past two American League Cy Young awards and both got them while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Lee and Sabathia have both been dominating in the playoffs so far as Lee has gone 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia has complied a postseason record of 3-0 to go along with a 1.19 ERA and the American League Championship Series MVP award. While Lee had not previously pitched in the playoffs, Sabathia had struggled in the playoffs prior to this season. He faced the Phillies in the 2008 NLDS while he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers and allowed 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings, surrendering a memorable grand slam to Shane Victorino in the process. Runs may be at a premium in this game since both pitchers are left-handed and as mentioned before, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run park for left-handed batters. Lee has not faced the Yankees this year but in his career against the team he is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA. While most of the Yankees hitters have enjoyed moderate success against Lee, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano have combined for six career hits (all singles) in forty at-bats in their career against Lee. Sabathia faced the Phillies once in the regular season, allowing three runs in eight innings against them in Yankee Stadium and received a no-decison. In three career regular season starts against the Phillies, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. Collectively, the Phillies roster has hit Sabathia fairly well, posting an .817 OPS.
Game 2 will feature Pedro Martinez and pitching for the Phillies against the Burnett. Both of these pitchers are right-handed, so switch-hitters Posada, Swisher, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. This will be to the Yankees' advantage as four of their top sluggers will be batting left-handed and makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Martinez in Game 2 over left-hander Cole Hamels questionable. Burnett has been very inconsistent this season but finished the season with a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA. He took the loss on May 22nd against the Phillies, allowing five runs in six innings of work. In his career against the Phillies, Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. The key to beating Burnett could be the designated hitter as Phillies' left-handers Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs have combined to go 7-for-17 in their career against Burnett with two homeruns. Martinez has not faced the Yankees this season but in his career against them he is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA. While most of the Yankees have adequate career numbers against Martinez, Cano is 0-for-12 against him. In the playoffs in his career, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series once, throwing seven scoreless innings in a win for the 2004 Boston Red Sox.
Game 3 will likely feature Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies against the Yankees' Pettitte in Citizens Bank Park. Hamels, last season's World Series MVP, has struggled in the playoffs so far, allowing 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. Hamels is 0-1 in his career against the Yankees in 2 starts but has a 2.77 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees earlier this season. Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and Cabrera all have good numbers in the careers against Hamels. In two career starts in Citizens Bank Park, Pettitte has a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA but Pettitte allowed four runs in seven innings against the Phillies earlier this season in Yankee Stadium. Collectively, the Phillies have only hit .230/.267/.353 against Pettitte in their careers.
The starters for Game 4 have not yet been announced but the Yankees will probably start Sabathia on three days' rest. If the Phillies trail in the series, they will probably start Lee on short rest as well, something he has never done in his career. If Lee does not make the start, the Phillies will turn to either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton. Happ faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium in May allowing two runs over six innings. Blanton pitched well in a start against the Dodgers in the NLCS but in his career against the Yankees is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Alex Rodriguez has hit Blanton particularly hard with four hits and two home runs in just seven career at-bats against Blanton with four walks.
There are no "random" off-days in this series aside from travel days so Game 5 will be played the day after Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park and after an off-day, Games 6 and 7 will be played in Yankee Stadium, if they are necessary.
Here are a few other factors to consider:
The Phillies have lost exactly one game in each of their last five playoff series and have not trailed in any of those series.
The team that has won Game 1 of the World Series has won 11 of the last 12 World Series, including the last six.
Against his former teams this year, Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he is a 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA.
Out of the eight closers whose teams qualified for the postseason, only two have not blown a save: Lidge and Rivera.
Dating back to the regular season, Lidge has gone eight straight appearances without allowing a run. His previous maximum for consecutive scoreless appearances this season is five.
The Yankees swept the Phillies in the 1950 World Series.
The Phillies' Matt Stairs hit a memorable go-ahead home run against Dodgers' reliever Jonathan Broxton in the 2008 NLDS and Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches in the 2009 NLDS. Sabathia and Victorino will face each other several times in this World Series.
Prediction: The intangibles of this series may seem stacked towards the Yankees but I will go with the pattern that has held up for the Phillies in the past two posteasons: Phillies in 5. I will also predict that Rivera will blow a save in the series. Read more!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Weird schedule could favor Phils
The Philadelphia Phillies will not play a baseball game tomorrow. The day off is rather strange since it comes between Game 4 and Game 5, both of which will be played at Citizens Bank Park. While it will be annoying not to watch the Phillies tomorrow (especially if they win tonight and are on the verge of clinching a World Series berth), this schedule quirk could work out well for the Phillies.If the Los Angeles Dodgers win either of the next two games, they will force a Game 6 to be played in Los Angeles on Friday, with a travel day off on Thursday. This will allow the Phillies to start their postseason stud, Cliff Lee, in Game 6, on normal rest. Moreover, should the series go to Game 7 (assuming the Cole Jamels starts in Game 5) the Phillies would have Pedro Martinez available to start on long rest and he excelled pitching on long rest in Game 2 of the NLCS. Lastly, since Game 1 of the World Series is set for Wednesday, October 28th, pitching Lee in Game 6 of the NLCS would allow him to start Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. While it means a day without baseball, tomorrow's off day could favor the Phillies in both the NLCS and the World Series, should they qualify.
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