Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Maybe Charlie reads this blog
Before tonight's game against the Houston Astros, Charlie Manuel held a closed door meeting with the team. And the Phillies won. Good idea, Charlie.
Read more!
Monday, September 28, 2009
This team needs a spark
The Phillies are in dire need of a spark. They just completed a lackluster 5-5 road trip and after tonight's very flat 8-2 loss to the Houston Astros, the Phillies have now dropped five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the surging Atlanta Braves are just four games behind the Phillies for the National League East title. Moreover, as Todd Zolecki has pointed out, recent National League champions have played remarkably well in the stretch run. Simply put, this team needs some form of inspiration if they want to win the NL East or make another run in the playoffs.
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Last season, the Phillies had just dropped two out of three games to the lowly Washington Nationals and were about to start a crucial three-game series with the Mets, whom the Phillies trailed by three games in the NL East. When the Phillies arrived at Shea Stadium, they were greeted in the clubhouse with an inspirational e-mail from Mike Schmidt. The Phillies responded by winning two of three games from the Mets and finished the season 16-6 and won the division by three games.
Earlier this season when the Phillies were in another tailspin, Manuel called a closed-door meeting after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies responded by taking the final two games of the Blue Jays series and after being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games.
While fans and the media have scapegoated Brad Lidge for the Phillies' recent mediocrity, several other Phillies have scuffled in September such as Chase Utley (.692 OPS), Pedro Feliz (.598 OPS), Shane Victorino (.616 OPS), Cliff Lee (5.59 ERA) and Joe Blanton (4.91 ERA). Whether it's in the form of an e-mail from a Phillies legend, a closed-door team meeting or benching struggling starters, Charlie Manuel needs to realize that his team's current problems extend past who is pitching the ninth inning.
Read more!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The case for Kendrick
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will be starting postseason games for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. However, the Phillies will need one more starter for their postseason rotation. Due to a number of injuries and other factors, that competition is currently wide open.
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
One option for the fourth starter would be J.A. Happ. Happ has been brilliant this season as both a starter (8-4, 2.82) and as a reliever (2-0, 2.49). However, he left his last start after just three innings with a strained oblique, an injury that caused him to miss his previous two starts. Even if Happ is healthy for the playoffs, he might serve the team best by pitching out of the bullpen. At the moment, the Phillies' only left-handed reliever is rookie Sergio Escalona as Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner are injured (I am counting Jamie Moyer as a starter rather than a reliever). It would be overly presumptive to rely on Eyre, Romero and Taschner being healthy and effective for the playoffs so Happ might be needed in the bullpen. If the Phillies were to remove Happ from the starting rotation now, it would give his injury time to heal and allow Happ time to re-adjust to pitching out of the bullpen.
Another option for the Phillies' playoff rotation would be to start Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32). If Martinez is healthy for the playoffs, he should be a starting pitcher. However, that is not a guarantee as Martinez left Saturday's start against the Atlanta Braves in just three innings with a sore neck. There has been no word from the Phillies about Martinez's return.
The next person in line for the starting job in the playoffs would be Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05). Moyer has struggled as a starting pitcher (10-9, 5.41) this season and might be more useful in long relief (2-0, 1.35). If the Phillies' left-handed relievers are not healthy and effective for the playoffs, Moyer might need to pitch in middle or late relief instead.
There is one more player the Phillies should consider for their final playoff rotation spot: Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.70). Kendrick, who has spent most of the season in AAA Lehigh Valley (9-7, 3.34), has pitched well upon his return to the major league team, adding a changeup to his repertoire. Kendrick has put up a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 September innings (1 start, 1 relief appearance).
The Phillies should slot Kendrick into the rotation for the rest of the regular season and see if he has continued success. After an off-day tomorrow, the Phillies play 14 games in the regular season's 13 days so having an extra man in the rotation would allow time for Martinez and Happ to recover from their injuries (or give Happ a chance to re-adjust to the bullpen). If Kendrick is ineffective, the Phillies have a number of other pitchers who could join the playoff roster and starting Kendrick won't be detrimental to making the playoffs as, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have over a 99% chance of making the playoffs (not including today's victory over Atlanta). However, if Kendrick is effective, the Phillies have a potential starting pitcher for their playoff rotation.
Assuming Martinez is healthy enough to make his next scheduled start, the Phillies' probable pitchers for the rest of the season would be:
9/22 @ Florida (Game 1): Blanton
9/22 @ Florida (Game 2): Moyer
9/23 @ Florida: Hamels
9/24 @ Florida: Kendrick
9/25 @ Milwaukee: Martinez
9/26 @ Milwaukee: Lee
9/27 @ Milwaukee: Blanton
9/28 vs. Houston: Moyer
9/29 vs. Houston: Hamels
9/30 vs. Houston: Kendrick
10/1 vs. Houston: Martinez
10/2 vs. Florida: Lee
10/3 vs. Florida: Blanton
10/4 vs. Florida: Moyer
The divisional round of the playoffs would start on 10/7 and the Phillies could start Lee in Game 1 on normal rest or Hamels in Game 1 on extended rest. Read more!
Friday, September 18, 2009
A note
The Phillies have 17 games to play. They have a 7.5 game lead in the division. Don't fuck this up, boys.
Read more!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Beating the overshift
Tonight's game against the Washington Nationals featured the exception to the rule. Ryan Howard flared a ball onto the right side of the field that fell in between the second baseman and the right fielder.
Since Ryan Howard broke into the Major Leagues, opposing teams have employed the "overshift" when he is up to bat, meaning that the third baseman plays in the shortstop position, the shortstop plays in the second base position and the second baseman plays in shallow right field. This alignment has taken countless should-have-been base hits to right field away from Howard.
There may be a way for Howard to beat the overshift that does not involve hitting a lucky shot in between fielders.
Ryan Howard should consider occasionally trying to bunt down the third base line. As long as Howard can bunt the ball past the pitcher (which should not be too hard given Howard's strength), he will easily get a base hit. If Howard successfully executes these bunts on a consistent enough basis (only once or twice a month should suffice), opposing teams would be forced to adopt a more regular infield alignment leading to more base hits to right field for Howard.
Read more!
Since Ryan Howard broke into the Major Leagues, opposing teams have employed the "overshift" when he is up to bat, meaning that the third baseman plays in the shortstop position, the shortstop plays in the second base position and the second baseman plays in shallow right field. This alignment has taken countless should-have-been base hits to right field away from Howard.
There may be a way for Howard to beat the overshift that does not involve hitting a lucky shot in between fielders.
Ryan Howard should consider occasionally trying to bunt down the third base line. As long as Howard can bunt the ball past the pitcher (which should not be too hard given Howard's strength), he will easily get a base hit. If Howard successfully executes these bunts on a consistent enough basis (only once or twice a month should suffice), opposing teams would be forced to adopt a more regular infield alignment leading to more base hits to right field for Howard.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Building a 25 man roster (without Lidge).
First I want to thank Nick for letting me post here. But considering I'm like 80% of the comments, it only seems fair.
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
So anyway, with the Phillies a solid 7 games up, it's time to start thinking ahead to constructing a 25 man roster. The Phillies are actually in pretty good shape here, if anything, they have too many players who "deserve" a spot or who you can imagine being able to contribute.
One last comment before I get started: I'm pretty much going on the assumption that all the players on the 15 day DL will be back and close to 100% by the playoffs, and if I understand what the Phillies are saying, so are they.
First I'll list the players who I think are pretty uncontroversial, in no particular order.
Position Players (9):
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Pedro Feliz
Carlos Ruiz
Paul Bako
Paul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Pitchers (8):
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Cliff Lee
Ryan Madson
Jamie Moyer
Chan Ho Park
J.C. Romero
That's 17 picks, leaving 8 picks to go.
Position Players (3):
Ben Francisco
This guy would be (and has been) an everyday player on other teams. I could even see him starting a game here and there, but he also could be used as a pinch hitter who could also play effective defensive (sorry Matt Stairs).
Matt Stairs
Though he's definitely been cold this half hits wise, he's still a powerful lefty, and even though he's carrying a pretty weak AVG, his OBP is still a decent .359. Honestly, at least he's a lot better than John Mayberry at the whole pinch hitting thing.
Eric Bruntlett
Ok, they guy isn't really a major league level hitter. But he can play pretty much every position, including most importantly (if not fantastically) SS and 2B. Also qualifies under the unassisted triple play clause.
That leaves room for 5 more pitchers. I know that having 13 pitchers may seem like a tad overkill, but honestly, it's not the scoring runs that scares me, it's the pitching. I really can't justify adding Miguel Cairo. One could argue that Dobbs deserves a spot, and if he makes a speedy recovery, maybe he does. But he's not been the amazing pinch hitter he was last year.
Now before we proceed, let's remember that especially in a short playoff series, it's pretty likely you won't use a 4th starter, and very possible won't use a 5th.
Assuming a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton, it's not obvious they need another guy who can start, and even if they do, Moyer could fill that spot. But, it's never bad to have a guy who can go more than a few frames, so let's give Pedro Martinez a spot (21). Some might say this is obvious, but the dude's pitched 119 and 130 pitches in his last 2 starts. But, considering how great he was on Sunday night, and assuming the Phillies can give him some rest between now and then, he should be good to go. He even seems willing to work out of the bullpen, and even if he's not 100%, I know I wouldn't want to see him in the 9th inning.
For spot number 22, I'm going with Scott Eyre. This overlooked lefty has posted some great numbers this year, even if his K/BB ratio isn't great. Even if he's just a situational lefty, that could be pretty useful.
Assuming he gets healthy and is ready, I'd give the next spot to Clay Condrey. With a WHIP of 1.24 and a GO/AO ratio of 2.18 (and a career 1.68) he's definitely a guy who can contribute.
For the penultimate spot, I'm going with Tyler Walker. This guy has been awesome this year. 19 strikes against only 6 walks. a WHIP of 0.89. Only 2 HR in 27 innings. Arguably he's having an abnormal year. But it's mid-September. I have no reason to believe he's going to collapse.
For the final spot, I'm going with Brett Myers. This pick is based on the trouble the Phillies have had in the 9th inning. I'm not really a big fan of the idea of a "closer" but it does seem a little true that some very good pitchers, given the ball in the 9th inning fall apart (sorry Madson). As Mitch Williams says, some players need to have that type of craziness that let's them excel in that position. And among the countless types of crazy that one could attrbute to Myers, it's the closer type of crazy that matters here. I'd rather have the 9th inning be demystified, but until then, Myers might be the guy.
So yeah, I left Lidge off. It's been done before. Well sorta. Remember Adam Eaton. Actually, don't remember Adam Eaton. I apologize to those who just had flashbacks to one of any number of horrible memories provided by him. Lidge simply has not proven his ability to get guys out when it counts. Even last year, every Lidge appearance was a rollercoster. But this year, it's not even fun, it just seems inevitable. Could things change? I guess. If Pedro can't recover from 130 pitches, if Happ isn't ready, same for Romero. But honestly, I'm not sure he get's the 26th spot, or even the 27th. I think I would rather have Dobbs, or even maybe Cairo, shit maybe even Sergio Escalona, with his 6.1 innings this year.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Raul's struggles are nothing new
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui.
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui. Ibanez's summer swoon is nothing new to Phillies' left fielders as Pat Burrell underwent a similar dropoff from a hot start last season. Burrell's 2008 season is quite similar although slightly worse than Ibanez's 2009 season:
FIRST HALF
Pat Burrell (2008) .275/.404/.575 with 23 HR
Raul Ibanez (2009) .309/.367/.649 with 22 HR (Ibanez was injured from June 17 through the All-Star Break)
SECOND HALF
Pat Burrell .215/.313/.413 with 10 HR
Raul Ibanez .233/.321/.445 with 8 HR
PLAYOFFS
Pat Burrell .227/.346/.455 with 3 HR
Furthermore, Burrell's September was horrendus as he put up a line of .205/.322/.397 with just three home runs. However, Burrell was able to translate a poor September into a respectable showing in the postseason, keyed by the double in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the World Series which proved to be a game-winner. This September in just seven games, Ibanez is batting .304/.360/.696 with three home runs already. So far, Ibanez's 2009 season has tracked slightly above Burrell's 2008 season. If this trend continues, Ibanez should be in great shape for the Phillies' postseason.
Read more!
Phillies' left fielder Raul Ibanez had a terrible month of August. During the month, Ibanez hit just one home run and put up an AVG/OBP/SLG line of just .193/.276/.318. That means he hit fewer home runs than his former teammate Ichiro Suzuki, had a lower batting average than Adam Kennedy, had a worse on-base percentage than Delwyn Young and was outslugged by Kaz Matsui. Ibanez's summer swoon is nothing new to Phillies' left fielders as Pat Burrell underwent a similar dropoff from a hot start last season. Burrell's 2008 season is quite similar although slightly worse than Ibanez's 2009 season:
FIRST HALF
Pat Burrell (2008) .275/.404/.575 with 23 HR
Raul Ibanez (2009) .309/.367/.649 with 22 HR (Ibanez was injured from June 17 through the All-Star Break)
SECOND HALF
Pat Burrell .215/.313/.413 with 10 HR
Raul Ibanez .233/.321/.445 with 8 HR
PLAYOFFS
Pat Burrell .227/.346/.455 with 3 HR
Furthermore, Burrell's September was horrendus as he put up a line of .205/.322/.397 with just three home runs. However, Burrell was able to translate a poor September into a respectable showing in the postseason, keyed by the double in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the World Series which proved to be a game-winner. This September in just seven games, Ibanez is batting .304/.360/.696 with three home runs already. So far, Ibanez's 2009 season has tracked slightly above Burrell's 2008 season. If this trend continues, Ibanez should be in great shape for the Phillies' postseason.
Read more!
Friday, September 4, 2009
What could the Phillies look like?
For the past several weeks, Matthew Pouliot has run a series of articles at NBCSports.com called "Restoring the Rosters". Mr. Pouliot's excellent work shows what every Major League team would look like if players stayed with the team who originally signed them (for example, the Phillies' roster wouldn't include J.D. Drew since he never signed with the Phillies but would include Carlos Carrasco since he originally signed with the Phillies before he was traded to the Indians). Mr. Pouliot has been revealing one team a day and has five teams yet to reveal (the Phillies, Braves, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers). I will restore the Phillies' roster and see how it compares to Mr. Pouliot's when he posts his Phillies' roster.
STARTING ROTATION
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Gavin Floyd
J.A. Happ
Brett Myers
BULLPEN
Ryan Madson
Josh Outman
Taylor Buchholz
Geoff Geary
Carlos Silva
Sergio Escalona
Robinson Tejeda
That is an excellent starting rotation with no weak links. I still believe that Hamels will be a bona fide ace and he is complemented by four #2-#3 starters. Outman could slide into the rotation if there is an injury to one of the starting pitchers. Silva could also move into the rotation, but that should be a last resort. When healthy, the bullpen would be decent but this season injuries to Outman and Buchholz would force the Phillies to rely on too many innings from Geary (who is currently struggling in AAA after having a great season for Houston last year), Escalona and Tejeda. Adam Eaton fails to make the cut. Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo or Kyle Drabek could make the roster in a year or two.
LINEUP
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Michael Bourn
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
3B Scott Rolen
RF Marlon Byrd
C Carlos Ruiz
BENCH
C Jason Jaramillo
IF Nick Punto
UTIL Marlon Anderson
OF Jason Michaels
OF Greg Golson
The Phillies' lineup looks very solid. Bourn could be dropped down in the batting order, Utley could moved to the second slot in the lineup and Rolen or Byrd could bat third to break up the three lefties in a row. Their infield defense is excellent and while Byrd is a stretch to play right field, he would certainly be an improvement over having Burrell play right. The Phillies could stand to have an improvement at catcher but both Mike Lieberthal and Johnny Estrada are out of baseball. The bench is rather weak, though Punto could be used to spell the oft-injured Rolen at third. Michaels would be okay as a right-handed pinch hitter. Anderson is currently playing for the independent Newark Bears but if he doesn't qualify, Indians' minor leaguer Jason Donald would get the final bench spot.
If the Phillies' starting roster were to stay healthy, they would be a very dangerous team. However, the only real depth on this team is provided by Outman, Silva and Punto so staying injury-free would be a must.
What changes would you make to my restored roster? Post them in the comments section and we will see in a couple of days how my roster compares to Matthew Pouliot's roster.
Read more!
STARTING ROTATION
Cole Hamels
Randy Wolf
Gavin Floyd
J.A. Happ
Brett Myers
BULLPEN
Ryan Madson
Josh Outman
Taylor Buchholz
Geoff Geary
Carlos Silva
Sergio Escalona
Robinson Tejeda
That is an excellent starting rotation with no weak links. I still believe that Hamels will be a bona fide ace and he is complemented by four #2-#3 starters. Outman could slide into the rotation if there is an injury to one of the starting pitchers. Silva could also move into the rotation, but that should be a last resort. When healthy, the bullpen would be decent but this season injuries to Outman and Buchholz would force the Phillies to rely on too many innings from Geary (who is currently struggling in AAA after having a great season for Houston last year), Escalona and Tejeda. Adam Eaton fails to make the cut. Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo or Kyle Drabek could make the roster in a year or two.
LINEUP
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Michael Bourn
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
3B Scott Rolen
RF Marlon Byrd
C Carlos Ruiz
BENCH
C Jason Jaramillo
IF Nick Punto
UTIL Marlon Anderson
OF Jason Michaels
OF Greg Golson
The Phillies' lineup looks very solid. Bourn could be dropped down in the batting order, Utley could moved to the second slot in the lineup and Rolen or Byrd could bat third to break up the three lefties in a row. Their infield defense is excellent and while Byrd is a stretch to play right field, he would certainly be an improvement over having Burrell play right. The Phillies could stand to have an improvement at catcher but both Mike Lieberthal and Johnny Estrada are out of baseball. The bench is rather weak, though Punto could be used to spell the oft-injured Rolen at third. Michaels would be okay as a right-handed pinch hitter. Anderson is currently playing for the independent Newark Bears but if he doesn't qualify, Indians' minor leaguer Jason Donald would get the final bench spot.
If the Phillies' starting roster were to stay healthy, they would be a very dangerous team. However, the only real depth on this team is provided by Outman, Silva and Punto so staying injury-free would be a must.
What changes would you make to my restored roster? Post them in the comments section and we will see in a couple of days how my roster compares to Matthew Pouliot's roster.
Read more!
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The future of Pedro
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
According to Fangraphs, Feliz's defense has saved 4.4 runs this season. This is the third year in a row where is defense has declined. In 2007, Feliz's final year with the San Francisco Giants, Feliz's defense saved 21.7 runs and last year with the Phillies, Feliz saved 7.2 runs. Overall, Fangraphs estimates that Feliz's year has been valued at $6.5 million.
Feliz will be 35 next season, so his numbers should dip both offensively and defensively making the value of his expected 2010 performance close to the value of his option.
If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, they would need to fill the void externally as they do not have anyone who could start at third base in their minor league system. As stated earlier, it would be best for the Phillies to find a third baseman with superior defense.
Among starting Major League third basemen this season, the players who have provided better defense (via Fangraphs) than Feliz are Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Evan Longoria (Rays), Chone Figgins (Angels), Joe Crede (Twins), Adrian Beltre (Mariners), Brandon Inge (Tigers) and Casey Blake (Dodgers).
In that group, Zimmerman and Longoria are likely untouchable, Figgins, Crede and Beltre are free agents and Inge and Blake would be trade targets. Figgins projects as a Type A free agent and Beltre projects as a Type B free agent meaning that the Phillies would lose draft picks if they signed either one of them. Crede and Beltre are both represented by Scott Boras.
Chone Figgins is the prize of the free agent class and will likely have a number of suitors and should command a contract of well over 3 years and well over $10 million a year. The Phillies already have $96 million commited in payroll for next season before arbitration raises and free agents so Figgins will probably be too expensive for them. Figgins also would not fit well into the lineup given that the Phillies already have two leadoff-type hitters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.
Joe Crede would command a much more reasonable contract (he is signed this season to a 1 year/$2.5 million contract) but he is often injured and is rumored to be contemplating retirement. Any upside Crede may bring would be negated by the inevitable Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett platoon at third while Crede is injured.
Adrian Beltre would be an intriguing signing but is represented by Scott Boras and will only be 31 next season, so he will likely command a large contract. Fangraphs suggests Beltre has been worth just $6.9 million this season after being worth $18 million in 2008 and at least $12 million the past few seasons. However, Beltre could also benefit from a return to the National League. If the Phillies felt they could sign him to a contract less than Raul Ibanez's (3 years, $31.5 million), it might be worth passing on Feliz for him.
Brandon Inge had a monster first half for the Tigers and while he has cooled off in the second half, he is still having a career year and has been a key to the Tigers' run at the AL Central this year. Inge is signed for $6.6 million next year and according to FanGraphs has been worth $12.3 million this year so I imagine the price in that the Phillies would need to overpay to acquire Inge.
Casey Blake could be made expendable by the Dodgers if they resign Orlando Hudson to play second base and want to play minor leaguer Blake DeWitt at third next year. Blake is having the best defensive season of his career at third and has quietly put up a .272/.351/.459 line with sixteen home runs. He is signed for $6 million in 2010, $5.25 million in 2011 and has a $6 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for 2012. However, Blake is 36 and his numbers will probably tail off and given his track record, his defense may fall back to below average again throughout the remainder of his contract. If the Phillies could acquire him for a middling prospect, it might be worth the trade as his numbers are better than Feliz's.
Other possibilities for the Phillies could include Felipe Lopez (a free agent currently playing above average second base for the Brewers), Mark DeRosa (a free agent currently playing average third base for the Cardinals) or Eric Chavez (a release candidate by the Athletics who is solid defensively and signed for $12 million in 2010 but is currently injured)
In conclusion, the Phillies should inquire on the prices for Figgins, Beltre and Blake and if the prices are too high, as they most likely will be, they should pick up Feliz's option for 2010.
Read more!
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
The Phillies will need to make a decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Pedro Feliz.
Feliz has occupied third base for the past two seasons for the Phillies and has a $5 million option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout for next season. This year Feliz has put up a very average line of .275/.322/.393 with nine home runs. However, with six All-Star batters hitting ahead of Feliz in the lineup and a rotation that could feature as many as four left-handed pitchers next season (Lee, Happ, Hamels and Moyer), the defense provided by the third base position may be more important than the third baseman's offense.
According to Fangraphs, Feliz's defense has saved 4.4 runs this season. This is the third year in a row where is defense has declined. In 2007, Feliz's final year with the San Francisco Giants, Feliz's defense saved 21.7 runs and last year with the Phillies, Feliz saved 7.2 runs. Overall, Fangraphs estimates that Feliz's year has been valued at $6.5 million.
Feliz will be 35 next season, so his numbers should dip both offensively and defensively making the value of his expected 2010 performance close to the value of his option.
If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, they would need to fill the void externally as they do not have anyone who could start at third base in their minor league system. As stated earlier, it would be best for the Phillies to find a third baseman with superior defense.
Among starting Major League third basemen this season, the players who have provided better defense (via Fangraphs) than Feliz are Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Evan Longoria (Rays), Chone Figgins (Angels), Joe Crede (Twins), Adrian Beltre (Mariners), Brandon Inge (Tigers) and Casey Blake (Dodgers).
In that group, Zimmerman and Longoria are likely untouchable, Figgins, Crede and Beltre are free agents and Inge and Blake would be trade targets. Figgins projects as a Type A free agent and Beltre projects as a Type B free agent meaning that the Phillies would lose draft picks if they signed either one of them. Crede and Beltre are both represented by Scott Boras.
Chone Figgins is the prize of the free agent class and will likely have a number of suitors and should command a contract of well over 3 years and well over $10 million a year. The Phillies already have $96 million commited in payroll for next season before arbitration raises and free agents so Figgins will probably be too expensive for them. Figgins also would not fit well into the lineup given that the Phillies already have two leadoff-type hitters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.
Joe Crede would command a much more reasonable contract (he is signed this season to a 1 year/$2.5 million contract) but he is often injured and is rumored to be contemplating retirement. Any upside Crede may bring would be negated by the inevitable Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett platoon at third while Crede is injured.
Adrian Beltre would be an intriguing signing but is represented by Scott Boras and will only be 31 next season, so he will likely command a large contract. Fangraphs suggests Beltre has been worth just $6.9 million this season after being worth $18 million in 2008 and at least $12 million the past few seasons. However, Beltre could also benefit from a return to the National League. If the Phillies felt they could sign him to a contract less than Raul Ibanez's (3 years, $31.5 million), it might be worth passing on Feliz for him.
Brandon Inge had a monster first half for the Tigers and while he has cooled off in the second half, he is still having a career year and has been a key to the Tigers' run at the AL Central this year. Inge is signed for $6.6 million next year and according to FanGraphs has been worth $12.3 million this year so I imagine the price in that the Phillies would need to overpay to acquire Inge.
Casey Blake could be made expendable by the Dodgers if they resign Orlando Hudson to play second base and want to play minor leaguer Blake DeWitt at third next year. Blake is having the best defensive season of his career at third and has quietly put up a .272/.351/.459 line with sixteen home runs. He is signed for $6 million in 2010, $5.25 million in 2011 and has a $6 million club option with a $1.25 million buyout for 2012. However, Blake is 36 and his numbers will probably tail off and given his track record, his defense may fall back to below average again throughout the remainder of his contract. If the Phillies could acquire him for a middling prospect, it might be worth the trade as his numbers are better than Feliz's.
Other possibilities for the Phillies could include Felipe Lopez (a free agent currently playing above average second base for the Brewers), Mark DeRosa (a free agent currently playing average third base for the Cardinals) or Eric Chavez (a release candidate by the Athletics who is solid defensively and signed for $12 million in 2010 but is currently injured)
In conclusion, the Phillies should inquire on the prices for Figgins, Beltre and Blake and if the prices are too high, as they most likely will be, they should pick up Feliz's option for 2010.
Read more!
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