Thursday, August 27, 2009

Monitor Happ's Workload?

Right now, J.A. Happ should easily win the National League Rookie of the Year award.

He leads or is tied for the league among all National League rookies in ERA (2.59), shutouts (2), wins (10), strikeouts (93), WHIP (1.17) and is also second in innings pitched by one inning (135 2/3 to the Atlanta Braves' 34-year-old rookie Kenshin Kawakami).

The last stat could be cause for concern for the Phillies' phenom.


Since his first full professional season in 2005, Happ has thrown 78 1/3 innings, 160 2/3 innings, 122 1/3 innings and 166 2/3 innings, respectfully. Happ is in line to make eight more starts in the regular season and could make as many as six additional starts in the postseason. If Happ were only to pitch six innings in each of those starts, he would finish at 219 2/3 innings for the season or an increase of 53 innings over his previous career high. If that is the case, Happ should book his plane ticket to Birmingham, Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews for Tommy John surgery immediately.

The Phillies should be more economical in montoring Happ down the stretch run. Since June 3rd, Happ has failed to throw 100 or more pitches in a game only once (a blow up against the Caridnals on July 24th when he lasted just four innings). The Phillies' bullpen is fairly well rested (Phillies' starters have gone at least six innings this entire turn through the rotation) so there is no need to run Happ out there for a 7th inning if the Phillies have a comfortable lead and his pitch count is already high (this happened during Happ's last outing). To lower Happ's workload, the Phillies could also have him take an extra day or two off between starts and use Jamie Moyer for a spot start in Happ's place. This would also keep Happ fresher for the playoffs and they can increase Happ's workload if their playoff chances get dicey over the next month.

After all, the Phillies would not mortgage their future by giving up Happ for Roy Halladay so they might as well do everything in their power to make sure he can be a healthy part of their rotation for years to come.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Who needs a closer?

As has been one of the recurring themes of the Phillies this season, just when Brad Lidge looked like he has finally gotten into a groove as closer, he blows another game as what happened last night in Pittsburgh. As good as Lidge says he feels, the Phillies cannot continue to go forward with a closer who blows over a quarter of his games.

This brings up a larger question: is it necessary to have a special pitcher to pitch the ninth inning in a close game?

Let's take a look at the past four games (there were three save opprotunities during these four games and Lidge converted two of these opprotunities).

August 22: J.A. Happ goes 7 innings and leaves for a pinch hitter. Ryan Madson pitches the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead and records 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning throwing just 11 pitches. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th innings, also recording 2 strikeouts. Although Lidge got the save here, why not let Madson come back out for the 9th since he did so well in the 8th inning? His spot in the batting order didn't come up in the top of the ninth and there was no guarantee that Lidge would be effective throwing in the bottom of the ninth.

August 23: Pedro throws 6 innings and leaves with a 8-4 lead. Durbin gives up a run in the 7th and is pinch hit for and Madson gives up a run in the 8th. Lidge enters the game with a 9-6 lead and surrenders an unearned run before having Francoeur line into the unassisted triple play to end the game. This was a good situation to use Lidge. Durbin and Madson were not effective and since it was a close game, it make sense to use your "best" reliever here.

August 24: Cliff Lee gets pinch hit for after 7 innings and Chan Ho Park throws a perfect eighth and leaves with a 5-2 lead. The Phillies score one run in the top of the ninth but Park's batting spot does not come up. Lidge pitches a 1-2-3 9th inning. I do not understand why Lidge was brought into the game here. I did not see the game but I suppose Lidge had been warming up in the top of the ninth when the Phillies still had just a three run lead and the game was still a save situation and I suppose that Manuel wanted Lidge to enter the game if he had been warming. However, why have Lidge even warm up? Lidge had already thrown in the past two games and the Phillies had a three-run lead against a bad Mets' offense that had only been able to muster two unearned runs all game (back in the first inning) and the Phillies already had a pitcher on the mound in Park who has no problems pitching for multiple innings and looked great in the 8th inning.

August 25: Joe Blanton throws six innings and then Tyler Walker relives him and throws two scoreless innings before he is pinch hit for in the top of the ninth and the Phillies rally to take a 4-3 lead on the Pirates. Brad Lidge enters the game and six pitches later the Pirates win 6-4. While this was an ideal situation to use Lidge in a "closer's role", this blowup could have occured because Lidge had thrown in the past three games. Had Lidge even thrown one of those three games, his arm may have been much sharper.

Instead of panicking over who should be the Phillies' "closer" just for the ninth inning in a close game, the Phillies should instead focus on having the best reliever (or whoever is throwing the ball well at the moment) pitch in late game, high leverage situations.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009

The Brett Myers Situation

Brett Myers is set to rejoin the Phillies soon but the question is for long?

Myers, the Phillies' opening day starter for the past three seasons, is set to be a free agent after 2009, the final year of a 3 year, $25.75 million contract.

The Phillies have the power to offer Myers arbitration after the season and since he is currently on the cusp of being a Type B free agent, they may receive a compensatory draft pick if he rejects arbitration and signs with another team. However, I would expect Myers to accept arbitration since he seems to enjoy playing for the Phillies and could get a salary close to the $12 million he is making this year, a number is unlikely to find on the free agent market.


It would make sense for the Phillies to not offer Myers arbitration and attempt to re-sign him as a free agent. I imagine Myers and the Phillies would agree to a contract around 2 year, $14 million and he would provide a great amount of depth for Phillies' pitching next year. The Phillies' first four members of their starting rotation seem set for next season with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton. Jamie Moyer will probably get another shot at the fifth spot in the rotation with Kyle Drabek waiting in AA Reading or AAA Lehigh Valley.

Therefore, the Phillies could place Myers in the bullpen to begin next year and move him into the rotation if there is an injury to a starter. Myers could also step in as closer if Brad Lidge continues to falter. However, having a player in that role is a luxury and if another team is willing to pay Myers bigger money (such as a deal similar to the 3 year, $36 million deal Oliver Perez signed with the Mets in the offseason), the Phillies would be wise letting Myers move on and saving that money to fill any new needs that arise.
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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Stay away from Billy the Kid

Today marked the return of former Phillies closer Billy Wagner for the New York Mets following a year-long sting on the disabled list. Wagner threw a scoreless inning for the Mets in a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves. However, before Wagner even threw a pitch, he was placed on waivers by the Mets. This has stirred up some speculation that the Phillies may be interested in re-acquiring their former All-Star.

However, it would be wise for the Phillies to take a pass on Wagner.


If the Phillies were to claim Wagner off of waivers, they would be responsible for paying the remaining $2.7 million on Wagner's contract which is more than Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey are making for the entire season.

The Phillies also have an abudnance of left-handed relivers. Scott Eyre has done a very good job as the primary lefty out of the pen while J.C. Romero has been on the disabled list. Jamie Moyer was also excellent in his first relief appearance on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Minor leaguers Jack Taschner and Sergio Escalona have also proved themselves capable in short stints with the big league team this year.

One option for Wagner would be to use him in the closer's role where both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have struggled so far this year. Wagner does have 385 career saves but trusting the ninth inning to a 38-year-old coming off of major injury would be a major leap of faith for the Phillies. It would make more sense for the Phillies to continue to gut out the closer's role with Lidge or experiement with two-inning saves for Chan Ho Park.

Lastly, Billy Wagner has proven to be a bad teammate with both the Phillies and the Mets. His presence in the clubhouse could create an unnecessary distraction for a clubhouse that appears to be unified and is cruising towards their third straight division title.
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